A ship is sailing. It is carrying two-thirds less cargo than before. To deliver the same volume, it is therefore necessary to increase the number of trips, find other vessels or switch to a different mode of transport. The Rhine remains navigable. Its economic model, however, is far less so. This situation directly affects Luxembourg. Shipments travelling up or down the Moselle must use the Rhine to reach Rotterdam, Antwerp or Amsterdam. They carry ores, scrap metal, iron, steel, agricultural produce, building materials, containers and petroleum products. The country is therefore dependent on a river that does not flow through its territory.

On 29 July, the water level recorded at Koblenz was just 21 centimetres, according to figures reported by the Rhein-Zeitung. The regional newspaper compares this figure with a level of 1.30 metres, which is considered ideal. The difference is 1.09 metres. It should be noted, however, that the height recorded at a hydrometric station is not the actual depth of the channel. It serves as a reference for determining the available draught and, consequently, the amount of cargo a vessel can carry.

Cargo ships and oil tankers arriving at ports on the Moselle are sometimes carrying as little as 30 to 40 per cent of their usual cargo. In other words, their capacity is reduced by 60 to 70 per cent. However, the fixed costs of the voyage, the crew and the vessel remain largely the same. Added to these are the surcharges levied when the water level becomes too low.

Second warning following the fuel alert

As a result, transport costs per tonne on the Rhine have in some cases tripled, according to the Rhein-Zeitung. Observations made further upstream point to figures of a similar magnitude. In the Swiss Rhine ports, ships are also carrying only 30 to 40 per cent of their usual cargo, and industry professionals report that transport costs have doubled or tripled, according to SWR.

This increase does not mean that all logistics in Luxembourg suddenly cost three times as much. The figure relates to river freight under the most restrictive conditions. Its impact on the final price depends on the goods, the route, the contracts and the possibility of using rail or road. But it reveals the cost of fragility: the less easily a product can change its route, the more the Rhine dictates its price.

The fuel situation has already given us an initial glimpse of what is to come. During the week of 13 to 19 July, an importer was temporarily unable to supply around ten petrol stations in Luxembourg. Lex Delles had described the situation at the time as “tense, but under control”. Supplies from this operator had resumed and the country was not experiencing a general shortage. However, isolated supply disruptions remained possible, the Minister for the Economy and Energy had clarified in a parliamentary response reported by *Le Quotidien*.

The situation is therefore no longer simply a matter of a few empty petrol pumps. The low water level of the Rhine is driving up costs across the entire supply chain linking the refineries, the seaports, the port of Trier and the Luxembourg market. The depots in Trier supply diesel and heating oil to an area with a radius of around 100 kilometres. However, replacing them quickly with rail transport is by no means a straightforward process.

Problem on exit

“Tank wagons aren’t just lying around everywhere,” warns Volker Klassen, director of the Trier Port Authority, as quoted by the Rhein-Zeitung. He predicts that rail transport will play a more significant role if the low water levels persist. However, this solution requires the necessary tankers, train paths, terminals and loading capacity. A supply chain does not switch rivers in the same way that a motorist changes their route.

The Moselle itself remains navigable thanks to its dams and locks. The problem lies at its mouth. “The Moselle connects the economic regions of Trier, Luxembourg, the Saarland and Lorraine to the Rhine, and then on to the North Sea ports of Rotterdam, Antwerp and Amsterdam,” explains Fabian Göttlich, a representative of the Koblenz Chamber of Commerce and Industry. A large proportion of the traffic on the Moselle therefore depends on passing through the Rhine.

The Lower Rhine is therefore not yet causing a shortage in Luxembourg. It is sending a bill and a warning. Every centimetre lost reduces cargo capacity, increases the number of journeys and makes access to ports more expensive. For a landlocked country, security of supply begins well beyond its borders.