2023 was a record year for Swiss timepieces. In the wake of the post-Covid consumer craze, exports peaked at 26.7 billion Swiss francs - roughly 28.6 billion euros at today's prices. A year later, according to data from Deloitte's annual study of the Swiss watch industry, the value of exports has fallen by almost 3% and the volume of exports has dropped by 10%. This represents 1.5 million fewer watches sold. It was the so-called "intermediate" segment - i.e. timepieces with an export price of less than 3,000CHF, or around 6,000CHF to 8,000CHF at retail price - that suffered the most, with exports down by 16%. The higher-priced segments held up better, with a 1% rise in the value of their exports, despite a 4% fall in volume.
The market seemed to pick up timidly at the start of 2025, buoyed by a rise in exports to the United States after Donald Trump announced 39% tariffs on Swiss products in April. But in the end, by August 2025, exports were down 1% overall since the start of the year.
The US market weakened by Donald Trump
The fallout from the rise in US tariffs is worrying the industry. The United States has been the leading export market for Swiss watches since 2021. In 2024, exports to this country accounted for 16.8% of all watch exports and 9.2% of all Swiss exports to the United States, representing a volume of 4.4 billion Swiss francs. Only the pharmaceuticals sector did better.
In anticipation of the rise in customs tariffs, brands and retailers increased their stocks, resulting in a 19% increase in exports. However, brands have announced increases in retail prices, which should affect demand, according to Deloitte's experts. And all the more so as consumer spending in the US is slowing.
At the same time, the Asian market is stagnating. Exports to China and Hong Kong continue to decline, by 26% and 19% respectively. And while emerging countries such as India offer promising prospects, volumes are much lower and cannot compensate for the decline in the American and Chinese markets.
Ambient pessimism among professionals
In this context of weakening demand, 43% of Swiss watchmaking executives consider the outlook for the main export markets to be negative. Only 23% are positive. This pessimism varies greatly according to market segment. 63% of executives believe that the top-of-the-range segment, characterised by sales prices in excess of 50,000 Swiss francs, will continue to perform well. In the luxury watch segment (CHF 10,000 to 50,000), 38% of executives were neutral, while 32% saw the outlook as positive. And in the mid-range (CHF 1,500 to 10,000) and entry-level segments, 60% of executives said they were pessimistic. "These divergences reflect the trend towards premiumisation that has shaped the market in recent years," say the Deloitte experts. Independent watchmakers - defined as those producing fewer than 10,000 watches a year - are among the optimists, with 60% expecting sales to rise in the coming months.
When asked about their growth forecasts by region, executives were particularly pessimistic about China (-38%) and Hong Kong (-41%). On the other hand, only 18% of respondents forecast a decline in Europe and 20% in North America, where this opinion remains largely a minority: 54% of respondents expect average to strong growth on the other side of the Atlantic. India continues to be seen as the most promising market by 79% of respondents. Mexico is emerging as an unexpected new market, with 50% of industry leaders predicting medium to strong growth. Despite this digital trend, strong personal relationships with retailers remain a cultural characteristic specific to this market, with buyers placing great importance on trust and established ties.
Consumer side
Deloitte also conducted a consumer survey. A notable fact: the proportion of respondents who say they wear a traditional watch has fallen considerably, from 46% in five years to 26% in 2025. Today, smartwatches are the most-worn wristwatches, particularly among women and the younger generation, which is increasing the pressure on entry-level price segments. Price plays a major role in this behavioural shift, Deloitte analyses.
72% of respondents planning to buy a traditional watch in the next 12 months said it would be for their own use. This compares with 67% in 2024. India (85%), China (83%), Mexico (79%) and the United Arab Emirates (78%) all stand out as the markets where consumers are most likely to buy a timepiece for themselves.
When we look at generational differences, millennials are particularly keen on this type of pleasure purchase: 77% say they want to buy themselves a watch. At the same time, fewer of the younger generations surveyed said they had no intention of buying a watch in the next 12 months, a sign of the growing appreciation and interest in traditional watches among young consumers. On average, only 7% of millennials, Generation Z and Generation Alpha chose this option, compared with 23% of baby boomers and 13% of Generation X.
