In its latest June 2026 report “Forecasting Europe’s Private Capital AUM,” Pitchbook analyzed the likely evolution of European private capital assets under management (AUM) through 2030, focusing on venture capital (VC) and private equity (PE). The central conclusion is that the two asset classes are diverging: European PE is expected to continue growing steadily, while European VC faces a prolonged period of stagnation or decline due to fundraising challenges and weak liquidity conditions.
Venture capital: A decade of growth reverses
Pitchbook forecasts that European VC AUM will decline from $431.4bn in 2025 to $311bn by 2030 (see Chart1) , representing a significant reversal from the strong growth observed over the past decade. The primary driver is weak fundraising activity. Since peaking in 2022, both capital raised and the number of VC funds have fallen annually, limiting the inflow of new capital into the ecosystem.
VC AUM forecast (in billion of $) Source: Pitchbook • Geography: Europe
The report noted that the post-pandemic VC market has struggled with inconsistent deal activity, limited exits, reduced distributions to limited partners (LPs), and lower returns. Many startups are experiencing slower valuation growth or valuation resets, while investors remain cautious after the excesses of the 2021 boom. A lack of exits is identified as a particularly important constraint because LPs have not received sufficient capital distributions to recycle into new funds.
Even in Pitchbook’s optimistic scenario, VC AUM reaches only $406bn by 2030, still below the 2025 level. The downside case falls to $243bn, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding the sector.
Venture capital concentrates around AI
The report emphasized the growing concentration of venture capital around AI-related investments and a smaller number of large managers. While AI could become a major catalyst if successful exits emerge, Europe remains largely in the capital-deployment phase, unlike the US where leading AI companies are already approaching public markets.
Private equity: Continued expansion
Private equity presented a much more positive outlook. European PE AUM is forecast to rise from approximately $1.5trn in 2025 to $1.7trn by 2030, implying a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of roughly 3%. This continues a decade-long trend of consistent expansion, with PE AUM having grown from about $535bn in 2015.
Pitchbook argued that PE has demonstrated greater resilience than VC since 2021. Deal value reached record levels in 2025, fundraising remained strong in 2023 and 2024, and PE has increasingly become a core allocation for institutional investors. The downside scenario assumes AUM remains flat at $1.5trn, while the upside scenario reaches $2trn, suggesting a high probability of growth regardless of market conditions.
Several structural factors support PE growth, including the expansion of secondaries markets, evergreen fund structures, access to retail investors, and increasing interest from pension funds and sovereign wealth funds. Europe’s valuation discount relative to the US is also attracting international capital. However, PE remains sensitive to interest rates because of its reliance on leverage. Persistent inflation or higher borrowing costs could reduce deal activity and valuation growth.
UK set to retain private capital crown
The UK is expected to remain Europe’s dominant private capital hub by 2030. It is projected to account for 31.5% of European VC AUM and 38.8% of European PE AUM. Other leading VC markets include France, Germany, the Netherlands, and Israel.
For PE, Luxembourg, Sweden, France, and Switzerland follow the UK. Pitchbook attributed the UK’s leadership to its strong fundraising, dealmaking, and exit ecosystem, which has remained resilient despite Brexit.
Overall outlook
Pitchbook concluded that Europe’s private capital landscape is becoming increasingly bifurcated. PE appears positioned for steady, if moderate, expansion, while VC faces a more uncertain future dependent on improved fundraising conditions, AI-driven exits, and stronger liquidity for investors.
Geopolitical tensions, interest-rate movements, energy prices, and regulatory developments remain key risks. At the same time, Europe’s relatively attractive valuations and ongoing efforts to deepen capital markets provide long-term support for the region’s private capital industry.
