Trade between Luxembourg and the United States showed mixed results following the new tariffs announced by US president Donald Trump on 2 April 2025. The measures introduced a 10% baseline tariff on nearly all US imports, part of a wider strategy mainly aimed at reducing the US trade deficit with China. However, smaller trading partners like Luxembourg have also found themselves caught up in this unilateral trade shift.
April trade flows
Although the grand duchy’s trade in goods with the US remains limited in absolute terms, preliminary data retrieved by Paperjam for April 2025 reveal a sharp divergence. Luxembourg’s exports to the US increased to $81.8m, nearly 12% higher than a year earlier. Meanwhile, imports from the US declined by 14% to $86.6m. As a result, Luxembourg’s trade deficit with the US narrowed dramatically to just $4.8m, down from $27.2m in April 2024--an 82% reduction.
Year-to-date deficit
The broader trend for 2025 paints a different picture though. Over the first four months, Luxembourg’s cumulative trade deficit with the US rose sharply. Between January and April 2025, the deficit reached $225.6m, a 45% increase compared with $155.6m in the same period last year.
Given Luxembourg’s relatively small role in US trade and the lack of detailed historical data, longer-term analysis remains difficult. It is also important to note that with such small absolute figures, even modest changes can produce large percentage swings.
Moreover, data on US-Luxembourg trade in services, including financial services which form a key part of the economic relationship, is not available.
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Regional comparisons
Among neighbouring countries, Germany and France continued to post trade surpluses with the US, though their performances diverged. Germany recorded an $8.1bn surplus in April, a sharp 28% drop year-on-year, while France’s surplus rose 19% to $2bn. Belgium, on the other hand, saw its trade deficit with the US surge more than threefold--from $285.9m in April 2024 to $947.3m a year later.
At the European Union level, the monthly trade surplus with the US fell by 20% to $19.2bn in April. However, including the first quarter of 2025, the EU’s cumulative surplus reached $115.4bn, 59% higher than in the same period last year.
US-China trade
A similar trend emerged in US-China trade. China’s monthly surplus with the US declined 14% to $17.2bn in April. But on a year-to-date basis, the total was still 9% higher than the same period last year.
In global terms, US goods exports to all trading partners rose by 10% in April compared to the same month last year, while imports increased by just 1.9%. This helped reduce the monthly trade deficit by 12%, bringing it down to $87.5bn. However, the improvement looks less significant when viewed against the broader picture. The year-to-date goods trade deficit now stands at $511.8bn, which marks a 46% increase compared to the same period in 2024. So while April’s numbers may appear encouraging for Washington, it remains uncertain whether these gains will last. Several countries, including the EU, are currently in trade talks with the US, and the coming months will be key in gauging the full impact of the new tariff regime.
