With the price of kerosene having risen from $750 per tonne before the start of the war in the Middle East to $1,900 per tonne on Tuesday 14 April—a development that is having a severe impact on airlines’ operating costs—what are the consequences for travellers? Some airlines are cancelling flights and raising ticket prices, whilst certain European airports, such as those in Milan and Venice, are rationing their domestic flights.
According to Eurocontrol, a pan-European civil and military organisation dedicated to ensuring the safety, harmonisation and coordination of air traffic management (ATM) in Europe—which has a branch based in Luxembourg—traffic to and from the Middle East plummeted at the end of March and is now 59% lower than before the crisis, representing a reduction of around 1,200 flights. But the war in the Middle East is also having an impact on intra-European flights due to rising kerosene prices.
On the French side, Air France has announced a €100 increase for a long-haul return flight, Volotea is reported to have decided to cancel certain flights that have become unprofitable, and Ryanair’s CEO, Michael O’Leary, has indicated that the airline could reduce its flights by 5 to 10% between May and July should the crisis continue. The European airports association is predicting a widespread shortage within three weeks if maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is not restored by the end of April. The Airlines for Europe (A4E) lobby, which includes Lufthansa, Air France-KLM, IAG, Ryanair and easyJet, is calling for an “emergency plan” in Brussels.
Some airlines are going further by adjusting ticket prices after purchase. Volotea has introduced a “fair travel promise”, allowing fares to be adjusted up to seven days before departure depending on fluctuations in fuel prices. Passengers may be charged a surcharge, capped at 14 euros per person and per flight, or receive a refund if fuel prices have fallen. Customers are informed in advance and can refuse the change by cancelling free of charge.
At lux-Airport, Minister of Mobility 
A Luxair spokesperson provides a comprehensive update on the situation regarding the national airline.
Have any Luxair flights been cancelled due to the cost of fuel?
“The main impact on Luxair was initially operational and safety-related. In March, our airline suspended its flight schedule to Dubai, which was originally due to run until the beginning of May. [We continue] to monitor developments in the region very closely. As previously stated publicly, all operational decisions continue to be made on the basis of the security situation and in coordination with the relevant authorities. At this stage, Dubai and Abu Dhabi remain scheduled for the winter season from October 2026, provided that security conditions allow for responsible operations. However, Luxair has not cancelled any flights in its network with the aim of reducing fuel costs.
Some experts point out that kerosene used to account for 25% of operating costs and now accounts for 45% of them. What is the situation for Luxair, both before the war and since?
“Luxair has a fuel risk hedging policy in place. For the first half of 2026, the airline is almost fully hedged and therefore does not anticipate any short-term impact from current developments in the fuel market. For the second half of 2026, the level of hedging decreases. In 2027, Luxair remains more than 50% hedged, whilst in 2028, this level stands at nearly 30%.
Will airfares rise, or have they already risen to cover these costs?
“Luxair is closely monitoring fuel price trends, whilst also taking into account other structural pressures affecting the aviation sector, including regulatory requirements, rising social security and wage costs, supply chain constraints and broader inflationary pressures. Against this backdrop, it is unlikely that air travel will become cheaper in the coming years. Luxair does not automatically pass on every market fluctuation to its passengers. Thanks to its fuel hedging policy, no immediate short-term impact is expected over the period already secured. More broadly, ticket prices depend on a range of factors and not solely on kerosene.”
