"Yesterday morning, I was on board the Luxair flight to Dubai. After more than four hours in the air and as we were flying over Egypt, the captain took the decision to turn back due to the sudden deterioration of the situation in the region. With just a few hours to spare, I would have landed in a climate of uncertainty and insecurity. A huge thank you to Luxair for this responsible decision and for the safety of their passengers. And above all, a sincere thought for my friends, business partners and everyone currently on the ground in the United Arab Emirates."
At midday on Sunday, real estate investor Pierre Thomas recounted on Linkedin the turnaround of a Luxair plane with 131 passengers on board on Saturday, as the Israelis and Americans began bombing Iran in an attempt to overthrow the regime in power. Once again in defiance of international rules after the spectacular arrest of the Venezuelan president, Nicolas Maduro.
This Sunday evening, a government crisis unit met in the presence of Luxair CEO Gilles Feith, who praised the work of around 100 company staff in contacting customers stranded there since the closure of airspace across the region. "We will wait until the safety conditions are met to begin repatriation", he assured, alongside the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs,
Xavier Bettel - the Minister of Transport,
Yuriko Backes, was also mobilised. The head of diplomacy estimates that 500 Luxair customers are stranded in the region. Estimate, because the only way, for the moment, to know how many Luxembourgers, Luxembourg residents or Luxair customers are in one of the countries in the region is by their registration on LamA (Lëtzebuerger am Ausland) - for Luxembourgers.
According to Feith, a third of these customers would be from Luxembourg. For Xavier Bettel, many travellers may have left with another airline, from Lufthansa to Swiss, and the Luxembourg authorities would only know this if they were registered on LamA. "This makes it difficult for the moment to organise repatriation operations when the skies reopen", the Deputy Prime Minister also said. "And the situation will also have to return to normal before we can return. At the very least, we would have to extend until 5 March. But I can imagine that it will have to be extended again in the coming days", Feith added.
A total of 213 people are registered on LamA in the United Arab Emirates, 13 in Saudi Arabia, 9 in Israel, and none in Bahrain, Kuwait or Iran. The authorities are urging Luxembourgers to remain safe in their hotels and to avoid travelling to the borders to try to leave by other means.
While Luxair will lend a hand to any Europeans it can help, within the limits of its capacity, repatriation operations are also being prepared at European level.
Belgian nationals: should contact the FPS Foreign Affairs crisis centre in Belgium in the event of a serious situation or crisis, particularly if many Belgians are affected (0032 2 501 40 00). Once in the Gulf, Belgians can call the dedicated Belgian consular emergency number (e.g. for the United Arab Emirates): +971 50 441 34 60 - strictly reserved for emergencies (accidents, loss of documents, etc.). They are also encouraged to register beforehand on the Travellers Online service to facilitate consular contacts should the need arise.
For French nationals: French nationals in difficulty should approach the French embassy or consulate present in the country where they are stranded for consular assistance. It is strongly recommended to register on the "Ariane's Thread" register.
Everything to promote de-escalation
The Prime Minister, Luc Frieden, and the Deputy Prime Minister met on Saturday afternoon to review the situation and discuss the potential implications for Luxembourg nationals and regional stability.
"The government reaffirms its full solidarity with the Iranian people, who have been brutally oppressed for decades by the current regime in Tehran, and supports the Iranian people in their right to self-determination and in their mobilisation in defence of their freedom and fundamental rights. Luxembourg has supported many international initiatives and resolutions along these lines, as well as all the restrictive measures adopted by the European Union, including the recent inclusion of the Revolutionary Guard Corps on the European Union's list of terrorist organisations," reads a statement.
"The government also expresses its solidarity with countries in the region facing Iranian attacks in retaliation for Israeli and American strikes and calls on Iran to cease these strikes immediately. The Government calls on all parties to show restraint, to work towards de-escalation, to protect civilian populations and to act in full compliance with international law."
"Iran must put an end to any activity that threatens international peace and security, in particular its nuclear programme. Luxembourg supports all diplomatic efforts to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons," the government also says.
A new government council will be held this Monday to allow all ministers to take note of the latest information.
After Ali Khamenei
Over the weekend, Iran was the target of strikes attributed by the Iranian authorities to the United States and Israel, aimed according to Tehran at military and institutional sites on its territory. The Iranian authorities announced the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who had been in power for 36 years. In the wake of this announcement, Tehran announced the creation of a provisional collegiate leadership responsible for ensuring the continuity of state affairs, comprising interim President Mohammad Mokhber, the Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and the Head of the Judiciary Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, in accordance, according to the authorities, with the institutional mechanisms provided for in the event of a vacancy in supreme power. No official timetable for the rest of the succession process has been publicly released.
Domestically, rallies in support of the regime were held in several Iranian cities, according to official media, while demonstrations critical of the government were also reported by human rights organisations and diaspora sources, without independent confirmation of their scale. Abroad, several demonstrations linked to the Iranian situation took place over the weekend, mixing rallies in support of Iran with demonstrations denouncing the regime or the regional military escalation, particularly in Europe, North America and South Asia. On the diplomatic front, many states and international organisations called for restraint and de-escalation, with no formal mediation initiative announced at this stage.
Oil soars
The main immediate economic consequence of the conflict triggered this weekend by the US and Israeli strikes against Iran can be seen on world energy markets, where oil prices have risen sharply due to uncertainty over supplies via the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for almost a fifth of the world's supply. Brent crude jumped by around 10% to reach nearly $80 a barrel on Sunday, and several analysts believe that prices could approach or exceed $100 if the conflict continues and tanker transit remains suspended, despite a slight increase in production planned by Opec+ from April. This surge in prices is being relayed by a partial suspension of shipments by some oil companies and heightened concerns about energy flows to Asia and Europe, reinforcing the risk premium on world markets.
This tension on the oil markets has wider repercussions for the global economy. Fears of a second oil crisis since the Middle East conflict have prompted some investors to re-evaluate their positions, and financial observers believe that the sustained rise in prices could delay the interest rate cuts envisaged by some central banks, notably the US Federal Reserve, because of the additional inflationary pressure this could generate among consumers. Rising energy costs are already leading to warnings of possible price hikes at the pump in several countries and increased volatility on currency and bond markets, reflecting growing concern among economic players about a prolonged crisis.



