Driven by population and employment growth in Luxembourg, daily travel within the Greater Region could increase over the next 15 years. In a policy brief published on 16 June and based on simulations using the Mmust model, the Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (Liser) estimates that demand for travel could rise by 18% by 2040, with implications for cross-border transport infrastructure and networks. Daily journeys between France and Luxembourg alone could increase by more than 60%.
The report is based on the Mmust model, a decision-support tool developed as part of a cross-border cooperation initiative. This model combines data on population, employment, transport infrastructure and travel behaviour to simulate trends in daily journeys between 2024 and 2040. The authors point out that this is not a forecast, but a scenario based on observed trends and official demographic and economic projections.
Increased traffic between France and Luxembourg
In the fourth quarter of 2025, Luxembourg had 232,320 cross-border workers. According to the scenario adopted by the researchers, the country’s population could increase by 32 per cent by 2040, whilst the number of jobs is expected to rise by 46%.
In this context, the number of daily commuters between France and Luxembourg could rise from around 104,000 to 163,000 people, an increase of nearly 60%. According to the authors, Luxembourg will need an increasing number of additional workers, whilst the labour force available within its borders will not be sufficient to meet this demand.
The researchers also point out that jobs remain largely concentrated in Luxembourg, whilst housing and part of the workforce are spread across several neighbouring regions. According to them, this situation contributes to an increase in long-distance travel within the Greater Region.
Investments already factored into the projections
The Mmust model’s baseline scenario incorporates several projects, which are scheduled for completion by 2040. These include the widening of the A3 in Luxembourg and the A31 in France, new cross-border road links, the development of the rail network around Luxembourg City, the extension of the tram network, and the creation of eight new park-and-ride facilities.
According to the study, these investments are expected to improve certain local situations. The authors point out, however, that they would not be sufficient to fully offset the expected growth in demand for transport.
Across the Greater Region, the share of public transport is expected to rise from 11 per cent to 12 per cent by 2040. At the same time, the share of car use is expected to fall from 75 per cent to 74 per cent. The researchers note more marked changes on certain routes between France and Luxembourg, where public transport could gain seven percentage points in modal share thanks to investment in rail and park-and-ride facilities.
Several facilities could reach capacity
According to the simulations, several road corridors linking France to Luxembourg could be operating beyond their theoretical capacity during peak hours by 2040. The study indicates that demand could exceed the capacity of certain routes by 20 to 30 per cent.
The authors also estimate that most park-and-ride facilities will be operating at full capacity or close to their maximum capacity by 2040. Some facilities could have occupancy rates of over 85 per cent.
As regards public transport, passenger numbers could double on the Thionville–Luxembourg rail line in particular. The stations in Luxembourg City and Thionville are among the facilities identified by researchers as likely to handle significantly higher passenger volumes than at present.
Greater coordination between regions
Beyond transport infrastructure, the report highlights the role of spatial planning in shaping changes to daily travel patterns. The authors believe that greater coordination between countries, regions and transport authorities is needed to support these changes.
The report also emphasises that mobility issues relate to transport infrastructure, the location of housing and jobs, and planning decisions across the Greater Region.
