The Politmonitor survey published by RTL and the Luxemburger Wort confirms a trend that is now well established: the governing coalition is gradually regaining ground, but this improvement is not benefiting its leader. Conducted between 16 and 26 June, following the tripartite agreement, the survey shows that 49% of those questioned rate the government’s work as good, compared with 48% in the previous survey. Even more significantly, the proportion of negative opinions has fallen from 43% to 36%. The social compromise reached during the tripartite energy talks therefore appears to have allayed some of the criticism levelled at the government.

However, Luc Frieden (CSV) is not personally capitalising on this episode. The Prime Minister remains stuck at the 12th position in the rankings of political figures, with 52.6% of respondents holding a favourable view of him – a modest increase of 0.6 points. His image appears stable, but lacks any real momentum. By contrast, Xavier Bettel (DP) has once again confirmed his status as a dominant political figure. With nearly 80% of respondents expressing a favourable view of both his popularity and his competence, the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Foreign Affairs retains the top spot by a wide margin. He also remains the country’s best-known politician, with 98% name recognition.

Two faces of the coalition

The poll thus highlights a certain disconnect between the two main leaders of the executive. On the one hand, Luc Frieden embodies the government’s leadership and has seen only a limited improvement in the coalition’s image. On the other, Xavier Bettel continues to command the bulk of the personal political capital, with his popularity seemingly unaffected by the wear and tear of being in power. This complementary relationship, which has been evident since the start of the parliamentary term, remains one of the main strengths of the CSV-DP coalition.

Mixed fortunes at CSV

Within the DP, Stéphanie Obertin is the biggest loser. The Minister for Digitalisation and Higher Education has dropped by five points and now brings up the rear among government ministers. Her colleagues in the Economy, Lex Delles, and Defence, Yuriko Backes, are, however, the most popular DP ministers after Xavier Bettel.

Within the CSV, Martine Hansen is the party’s most highly rated minister, with just over 60% of respondents holding a favourable view of her. Martine Deprez, for her part, has seen the party’s biggest rise in support. Having been very much in the spotlight in recent months over several sensitive issues relating to health and social security, she has gained five points in terms of popularity and competence. By contrast, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Gilles Roth, and above all Leon Gloden are falling. The Minister for Home Affairs has dropped six places and is now 21st in the ranking. The speaker of the parliament, Claude Wiseler, has seen the sharpest fall in the entire ranking, losing seven points.

An opposition lacking momentum

The Politmonitor does not reveal any further dramatic gains within the opposition ranks. As for the LSAP, Paulette Lenert remains the party’s most popular figure despite his recent withdrawal from political life, whilst Mars Di Bartolomeo retains its place on the overall podium. Dan Biancalana has seen the sharpest decline among the Socialists. The Greens have seen a slight dip in support for their leading figures, as has the ADR, where only the results ofAlexandra Schoos are rising slightly. Tom Weidig has the lowest popularity rating of all those in the rankings. Among the Pirates, Marc Goergen is making progress, whilst Sven Clement falls significantly.

A coalition that is stronger than it was six months ago

Beyond the individual rankings, the main political lesson may lie in the changing assessment of the government’s performance. The marked decline in negative opinions suggests that the tensions caused by the reforms at the start of the parliamentary term are gradually easing. The tripartite agreement appears to have helped restore some confidence in the government. However, this resurgence remains largely collective. More than half of Luxembourgers still do not rank Luc Frieden among the country’s ten most popular political figures, whilst Xavier Bettel continues to hold the top spot unchallenged. Nearly three years after the elections, the coalition thus appears to be underpinned by two distinct sources of legitimacy: that of the government’s actions for the Prime Minister, and that of personal popularity for his Deputy Prime Minister.