Philippe Poirier reckons that whoever ends up in the Elysée France and Germany must continue to live together, “even if the flame is not as strong as it used to be .” Matic Zorman / Maison Moderne

Philippe Poirier reckons that whoever ends up in the Elysée France and Germany must continue to live together, “even if the flame is not as strong as it used to be .” Matic Zorman / Maison Moderne

France not only holds the presidency of the European Union for the first six months of 2022, it also holds its presidential election in May.

Following the election of a new, very pro-EU, coalition in Germany all eyes in Europe turn towards France in 2022. A stable relationship between the two giants of Europe is crucial for the future of the EU. Currently, Emmanuel Macron is leading in the polls and could well be elected for another five-year term in April. But there are murmurings on the far right that cannot be ignored. Even if Marie Le Pen may not be the force she was in 2017, there is still the populist and some would say downright dangerous Éric Zemmour to worry about.

Macron has not officially announced his candidacy by 30 November. As Philippe Poirier, assistant professor in political science at the University of Luxembourg, explains, it the incumbent president’s prerogative to declare last. “By announcing last, he is still in a position of authority,” says Poirier. “He is the President of the Republic. Nicolas Sarkozy did the same thing, Jacques Chirac did the same, François Mitterrand did the same, Giscard Estaing did the same.”

Poirier says that the rise of someone like Zemmour, akin to Macron coming out of almost nowhere in 2017, is down to several factors. “The structure of political information is still predominantly dominated by news channels and social networks. News channels have their story-telling, they have to maintain their audiences, their ratings. Of course, in story-telling, you need new actors or new actresses.” Zemmour, who is very familiar with how television works, has been a player in the media political scene for years. His candidacy may pose a problem for Marie Le Pen. “For the first time, what we call the conservative or the national camp has a competing candidate,” says Poirier.

But in recent weeks the rise of conservative Valérie Pécresse, President of the Regional Council of Île-de-France, has also gained media coverage--especially when she defeated Michel Barnier in the primary for the Les Républicains party.

Poirier reckons that if Macron is reelected relations between France and Germany will continue as normal. “They will always appear united in front of the stage, and will decide the essential things for the EU by sometimes delivering a fait accompli. And they we will keep the points on which they have some distance, or even a very strong position, without publicising them too much.”

Even if a candidate like Zemmour ends up in the Elysée, Poirier reckons that France and Germany are like an old couple who must continue to live together. “But the flame is not as strong as it used to be, especially on the energy issue, or even on issues concerning the relationship with Russia, or relations with the Arab-Muslim world, or relations with China.”