Juan Jose Marco Jurado, Head of Corporate & Regulatory Affairs at BAT Western Europe, has been at the company for over 20 years, making him a well-placed observer of the transformation shaping the industry. “We are embarked upon a transition to bring people to reduced risk products,” he says. “But we cannot do it alone. We need the support of governments and society to transition people out of cigarettes.”
“Smokeless products,” he argues, “are a way out of cigarettes. They are not a gateway into smoking.” BAT’s offer has historically been centred on combustible, or classic, cigarettes, but has now pivoted towards non-combustible alternatives that fall into three categories: vaping products; heated products; and modern oral products like nicotine pouches. The company aims to have at least 50% of its revenue come from alternative products by 2035.
“We are very clear that cigarettes pose health risks for consumers,” Marco continues. “And we want to share with society that we have alternatives for those people who want to switch but are unable to do so. We see that the most effective way to move away from smoking is by having smokeless alternatives.»
When you go for extreme regulations, you get extreme consequences.
Extreme regulations, extreme consequences
The European Commission has the goal of creating a “Tobacco-Free Generation” by 2040, where less than 5% of the population uses tobacco. But for Marco, “traditional” measures like high taxes and marketing bans mean that Europe will not reach this goal until 2100. “It will take them another 60 years if they continue at this rate--and so something needs to change,” he says. “Supporting smokeless alternative products can help.”
“When you go for extreme regulations, you get extreme consequences,” says Marco, who sees two major issues. The first, he argues, is that extreme regulations create illicit trade in cigarettes and nicotine products. “Luxembourg, for example, recently banned the sale of nicotine pouches with more than 0.048 mg of nicotine per pouch--which is basically zero nicotine. They’re applying a food level to nicotine pouches, when in reality nicotine pouches are not food products because you don’t ingest them.”
Moreover, he continues, illicit trade increases the chance that products end up in the hands of minors. “Criminal organisations, of course, don’t check the IDs of buyers,” says Marco. “The policies of irresponsible governments are actually creating a black market that sells to underage customers.”
The Dutch research and advisory firm Bureau Beke in April issued a report that found that 87% of people in the Netherlands who vape use vapes that are illegal or have been purchased illegally. For BAT’s Head of Corporate & Regulatory Affairs for Western Europe, this situation has arisen because the Dutch government has banned certain types of vaping products, like flavoured vapes--and is an example of how extreme regulation does not lead to a decline in smoking, but rather forces people to look to other channels to get what they want.
Examples from the UK and Nordic countries
Instead, Marco suggests taking a look at the approaches employed by countries like the United Kingdom, Sweden, and Norway.
In the UK, for instance, the National Health Service has stated that vaping is an effective tool for quitting smoking. According to the UK’s Office for National Statistics, 10.6% of adults were current smokers in 2024, a slight decrease compared to the 11.1% observed in 2023 and part of a long-term downward trend. Indeed, the statistics office states that 20.2% of the population were smokers in 2011.
Sweden, too, has seen a downward trend in the proportion of people who smoke tobacco. That figure stood at 5.4% in 2024 (down from 16.5% in 2004), according to the Public Health Agency of Sweden. The agency also found that the percentage of the population who uses snus (a oral tobacco product only authorised for sale in Sweden amongst EU countries), nicotine pouches, and e-cigarettes has increased in recent years.
The Norwegian statistics institute Statistisk sentralbyrå reported that 7% of the population were daily smokers in 2025, whilst 16% were daily users of snus. The percentage of the population who were daily smokers in 2011 stood at 17%; whilst the percentage of the population who were daily snus users was 8%.
Luxembourg, Marco points out, has a higher smoking prevalence. A survey run by Ilres in 2025 found that 16% of the population are daily smokers and 15% of occasional smokers--a total of 31%. Eleven percent of residents use electronic cigarettes and 3% use nicotine sachets.
Referring to these data points, BAT’s Marco argues that “those countries that endorse alternative smokeless products hit good numbers in terms of reducing smoking incidence. Those countries that do not are making little progress today.”
Data versus ideology
The coming years will be critical, Marco concludes, because of the adoption of the Tobacco Products Directive and the Tobacco Excise Directive. For the company’s Western Europe Head of Corporate & Regulatory Affairs, the approaches taken by these countries are split between ones based on ideology and ones based on data, and recommends regulating products like in Sweden, Norway, or the UK.
“Make sure they pay taxes. Make sure you sell only through licensed outlets. Create licensing systems to sell products. Adopt strict measures to prevent underage access. Introduce penalties and fines for those who sell to underage or commercialise illegally. Create the right nicotine ceilings. Once you regulate,” he argues, “you’ll see progress. But do not impose bans.”
Comparison of cigarette pack price and smoking rate Illustration Paperjam
31% > of Luxembourg's population smoke daily or occasionally. This represents approximately 177,000 people aged 16 and over. (Source: Ilres)