In the latest edition of its half-yearly economic report, Statec has examined the potential impact of artificial intelligence on the Luxembourg labour market. A market that is largely exposed to AI: according to calculations by the statistical office, more than 90% of workers could see their activities evolve with its development. AI is already well established in the Grand-Ducal labour market. In 2021, 13.2% of Luxembourg companies were already using AI solutions, compared with 7.7% in the European Union as a whole. By 2024, these figures had almost doubled, reaching 24% in Luxembourg and 13.5% in the EU.
Faced with these figures, the question arises as to whether AI is an opportunity for workers as a tool for assistance and productivity, or a threat, due to the risk of automating certain professions. To answer this question, Statec has chosen to measure exposure to AI. Exposure to AI means that recent technologies could modify an individual’s work to varying degrees. Four categories were defined: the unexposed, the augmentable - understanding those whose work could be assisted by AI -, the automatable - understanding those under direct threat of replacement - and the uncertain.
Administrative jobs in the spotlight
Statec estimates that 90% of jobs are exposed to AI, A high figure that should not be overdramatised. In fact, most of the impact of AI will not be negative. In fact, 55% of jobs fall into the category of those that can be augmented. The situation is more problematic for the 14% of workers in the automatable category. That’s 64,000 jobs potentially at risk. The replacement risk mainly affects administrative support jobs. 56% of these jobs present a high risk of automation. This rate falls to 20% for elementary occupations and service and sales workers, the other two sectors most at risk. At the other end of the scale are managers and professionals, where only 2% of jobs are at risk.
The study also shows that although the rate of exposure to AI is the same for both sexes, the risk of automation is significantly higher for women. In fact, 18% of women could see their jobs automated, compared with 11% of men. Conversely, a higher proportion of men than women stand to benefit from an increase in their tasks thanks to AI. This increased vulnerability of women is explained by Statec as a structural effect: women are more represented in the administrative support and sales sectors, two areas that are particularly vulnerable to automation by AI. Moreover, again because of this structural effect, it is the youngest women who are most at risk.
The baccalaureate does not save from shipwreck
Workers with a secondary education qualification (equivalent to the baccalaureate) appear to be the most at risk, with more than 21% of them having a potentially automatable job (i.e. almost 40,000 people). Paradoxically, workers without secondary education qualifications are less exposed. Those with a master’s degree or higher have the highest rate of increaseability. “They are the big winners of this technological revolution,” according to Statec.
If we take into account the criterion of nationality, it emerges that residents are more at risk than foreign workers (25% compared with 12%). These differences can be explained by the higher proportion of administrative support occupations - which tend to be automated - among Luxembourgers, compared with foreign workers.
By sector, it is the technical, IT and financial services that are strongly favoured by AI. For example, over 71% of finance workers would see their tasks completed by AI. On the other hand, public administration, commerce (24% of jobs automatable) and the hotel and catering industry (more than 61% uncertain exposure) present a greater risk of automation.