As the international balance of power is shifting at an unprecedented pace, understanding the new dynamics of power has become essential for both leaders and businesses. Thomas Gomart, a historian, director of the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri) and an expert on geopolitical issues, gave an interview to Paperjam ahead of the launch of his latest book, ‘Who Controls Whom? The New Global Balance of Power’, on 1 July 2026 at Neumünster Abbey for the Pierre Werner Institute.
What sets you apart from other experts on subjects as varied as Ukraine, Taiwan and the Middle East?
Thomas Gomart. – “Two things. Firstly, as early as 2016, I had anticipated the resurgence of geopolitical risk and the shifting dynamics of the US–Russia–China triangle. At the time, the business community still believed in ‘airport globalisation’ – that is to say, an inexorable intensification of economic and financial exchanges leading to the political convergence of models.
Global capitalism requires a hierarchy and is entrenched in power relations that are currently shifting. Globalisation, as we have understood it, is fundamentally the spectacular rise of China. This is the first point, which offers a less naïve interpretation of globalisation than that put forward by business circles.
Next, I wrote ‘The Acceleration of History’ in 2023 after boarding a French frigate in the South China Sea. The key geopolitical question is whether China will succeed in its shift towards the high seas. Globalisation goes hand in hand with the shift towards maritime power: 90 per cent of world trade is carried by sea, and the object that best sums up our era is the container ship. What happens in the South China Sea has repercussions on events in the Middle East and Ukraine. And vice versa.
Are you referring to geographical vulnerability and ‘crossing points’?
T. G. – “Yes, we are rediscovering how trade depends on geography, with around ten bottlenecks. In my book ‘The Acceleration of History’, I focus on three key locations: the Bosphorus, Hormuz and the Taiwan Strait. It’s a sort of ‘strategic Maslow’s pyramid’.
At the base of this pyramid lies food security, exemplified by wheat exports, which, prior to 2022, were mainly from Ukraine and Russia and whose flows via the Black Sea have been severely disrupted by the war. At the middle level is energy: oil and gas, which transit in particular through the Strait of Hormuz.
Finally, at the top of the pyramid is technology, with microprocessors manufactured in the region and transported mainly via the China Sea. This pyramid offers a simple illustration of the key interdependencies that currently shape the international balance of power.
Some analysts believe that de-dollarisation can only become a reality if US military power is surpassed, particularly by China.
T. G. – “Historically, the shift from the pound sterling to the dollar has run parallel to shifts in naval balance of power. There is a close link between naval power, energy (from coal to oil) and monetary power. Today, the United States has become a net exporter of energy, which has been a game-changer since 2010.
China is banking on a geopolitical strategy centred on the energy transition and low-carbon technologies to become a leader. It already controls 60 per cent of global shipbuilding and is investing heavily in physical port infrastructure. The Chinese navy commissions the equivalent of the French navy’s tonnage every four years.
This shows just how rapidly Europe is becoming increasingly provincial, because the centre of gravity has shifted towards the Asia-Pacific or the Indo-Pacific.
Your press release refers to deep-seated rivalries in the form of duels. Could you explain?
T. G. – “The book draws inspiration from Benjamin Constant and Lenin. For Constant, the father of political liberalism, the aim of politics is to keep the tyrant at bay. He has a phrase which forms the basis of the book, stating that war and trade are two means of obtaining what one desires. For Lenin, the ultimate aim of politics is the destruction of the adversary.
In my book, I have chosen to rephrase the question as ‘who controls whom?’ rather than ‘who wins?’, as the latter suggests a definitive victory. However, in a world characterised by a high degree of interdependence, the issue is less one of victory than of control and the ability to exert influence.
I have therefore structured my book around six showdowns that illustrate the main contemporary power dynamics: the conflict between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky; the confrontation between the late Ali Khamenei and Benjamin Netanyahu; the trade rivalries between Narendra Modi and Xi Jinping, which I believe constitute one of the main drivers of contemporary globalisation; as well as the tensions between Ursula von der Leyen and Donald Trump.
In the idea of desire, I contrast the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) with Fox News, which symbolises the opposition between scientific discourse and a polarised media narrative.
The showdown between the Vatican and Silicon Valley is decisive. I discuss how JD Vance, a Catholic convert following his meeting with Peter Thiel, attempted to impose a new order on Pope Francis in the name of tech. The Vatican remains one of the few authorities that has not bowed down to this model.
Léon XIV, an American of European descent who has made Peru his home, is an extremely astute choice. His initial statements and his encyclical on artificial intelligence show that there is still a foundation of humanist culture capable of standing up to those who tell us that our future lies on Mars.
Leaders such as Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and Donald Trump appear to have exploited the system’s weaknesses. Do they serve as role models for the new faces of European populism, such as Nigel Farage, Jordan Bardella, Marine Le Pen and Alice Weidel (AfD)?
T. G. – “Populism is a way of seizing power by appealing to the ‘losers of globalisation’ – those Western middle classes that have been devastated by deindustrialisation. Trump has degraded public discourse through systematic media provocation, inspiring imitators across Europe.
The difference is that, in 2024, Trump managed to win over the tech world (including Elon Musk) to his side, effectively privatising sovereignty at a time when the White House had become a sort of family office.
A former KGB officer, Putin worked briefly as a taxi driver following the collapse of the USSR before embarking on a meteoric rise to the Russian presidency. His ideology is inextricably linked to his personal experience and is rooted in Russian tradition, while making him largely unreceptive to the political logic of Western social democracies.
Unlike Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping hails from the Chinese revolutionary elite. The son of a ‘red prince’, he nevertheless underwent re-education during the Cultural Revolution. He patiently rose through the ranks of the Chinese Communist Party, and his career embodies the paradox of globalisation: China is the great winner of airport globalisation, which illustrates the paradox of a form of globalisation whose main beneficiary is one of the world’s most opaque Marxist-Leninist organisations. Since coming to power in 2012, Xi Jinping has gradually concentrated power in his own hands, to the point where, like Vladimir Putin, he is moving towards a system of lifelong presidency.
Will their ambitions for greatness lead their countries into economic decline?
T. G. – “That is not what we see in China. It has grown from 5 per cent of global GDP in 1985 to 22 per cent today, becoming a technological leader capable of disrupting the German social model and its car industry.
When the United States was playing the multilateralism game, the largest US companies by market capitalisation were less rich. It is highly paradoxical. Russia, on the other hand, has been weakened by missing the boat on globalisation and suffering massive human losses in Ukraine.
Who are the leading experts on Russia today, in terms of both geopolitical and economic issues?
T. G. – “At Ifri, I would mention Tatiana Kastoueva-Jean, who was spot on. There is also Fiona Hill, who testified against Trump, and Catherine Belton, author of a major book on the Putin system. In Russia itself, there are still courageous voices such as Nobel Prize winner Dmitry Muratov.
What could bring Putin down?
T. G. – “It’s impossible to predict. It might be one of the ‘boyards’ (oligarchs) or a brutal scene reminiscent of the execution of Beria, the feared head of the Soviet political police (NKVD), in 1953. The Prigozhin episode involving the Wagner Group has revealed cracks, but what happens next remains unclear.
What triggering event will prompt China to invade Taiwan?
T. G. – “The main trigger would be a formal declaration of independence.
A word about the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz?
T. G. – “Hezbollah, although supported by Iran, is not the key player in the Strait of Hormuz. Everything will depend on internal developments in Iran – in particular, a transfer of power from the mullahs to the Revolutionary Guards – and on Oman, which has historically acted as a mediator between Saudi Arabia and Iran. By bringing Oman into this equation, the Iranians are even considering imposing a double toll in the strait.”
