At first glance, Sun Tzu’s “The Art of War” and Donald Trump’s “The Art of the Deal” seem worlds apart. One is a millennia-old military treatise based on strategy, patience and a keen understanding of human dynamics. The other is a contemporary manifesto centred on negotiation, instinct and a deliberate unpredictability. Despite fundamental differences in how they achieve this, both works pursue a common goal: to win.
For Sun Tzu, the ideal victory is one won without fighting. It stems from foresight, discipline and self-control. The Chinese strategist values meticulous preparation, consistency and the art of concealing one’s intentions. Uncertainty is a tool that is mastered and used sparingly, integrated into a coherent long-term vision. Thus, he writes that “the whole secret lies in the confusion of the’enemy, so that he cannot understand our true intention”. The strategy takes into account the environment, the balance of power and the time factor.
Conversely, the approach popularised by Donald Trump favours immediate power dynamics, the element of surprise and the theatricalisation of negotiations. Positions shift rapidly, sometimes abruptly. U-turns are not (yet) seen as mistakes, but as leverage designed to unsettle the opponent and thereby regain the initiative. In this logic, consistency matters less than impact.
Whereas confusion is a masterful, almost silent strategy in Sun Tzu’s work, it becomes a tool for destabilisation in Trump’s hands. The US president sometimes seems to cultivate ambiguity as an end in itself, with public U-turns and contradictions that he openly embraces. The unpredictability is almost constant and seems more to foster ongoing uncertainty than to serve an overarching strategy.
Finding the right balance
The markets, too, prefer stability, even if they rarely achieve it. Volatility is an integral part of how they operate, with prices reacting swiftly to unexpected news, whether (geo)political, economic or monetary.
When volatility intensifies, the key question is this: should we prioritise consistency or adaptability? We believe the answer lies in a delicate balance between the two. Too much rigidity leaves us at risk of being left behind when conditions change, whilst constantly reacting leads to decisions driven by noise and poor timing.
In this sense, the real lesson lies in the ability to live with uncertainty without letting it dictate every move. We must therefore maintain a clear vision whilst retaining sufficient flexibility to navigate an unstable world. It is precisely in this spirit that we build our portfolios.
… not forgetting to diversify
From a strategic perspective, our assessment has remained unchanged for several years. We must now contend with a fragmented, multipolar world order. Geopolitical tensions are leading to supply disruptions, vulnerabilities in supply chains and heightened inflationary pressures. That is why we continue to hold gold, a broad basket of commodities and inflation-linked bonds as structural hedges. These are not tactical adjustments, but rather the enduring pillars of our portfolio construction.
At the same time, the priority is to remain invested. In the long term, it is compound interest that drives the bulk of returns, as stock markets are guided more by earnings and fundamentals than by immediate news. Managing risk whilst avoiding the trap of constant repositioning therefore remains essential. This discipline has already proven its worth in the face of the many twists and turns seen so far in 2026 and will enable us to cope with the highly probable turbulence ahead, despite the current ceasefire between the United States and Iran.
It is in this context that diversification remains crucial, as weakness in one market can be offset by resilience in another. When we adjust our positions, we do so gradually, rather than reacting to day-to-day noise. The aim is to build portfolios capable of withstanding a wide range of scenarios, from escalation to de-escalation. This is why we favour safer, higher-quality assets whilst maintaining exposure to equities.
