From recollections of the battle against AtHome, analysis of the property crisis, off-market sales, professional break-ups, energy performance and property simulation tools, Serge Uschkaloff offers an uncompromising view of a market he has been observing for nearly 20 years.
Whilst discussions often focus on prices, interest rates or the housing shortage, he believes that the real blind spot in the Luxembourg market lies elsewhere: in the quality and quantity of the available data.
How do you introduce yourself today?
Serge Uschkaloff. – “I see myself first and foremost as a tech entrepreneur. I’m often associated with property because I’ve spent a large part of my career developing tools and platforms for that sector, but my DNA remains in IT. I launched my first tech ventures in Luxembourg back in 2007. Among them is Meta – not the other one [smiles], mine – an IT company that’s been around for nearly 20 years.
When Facebook became Meta, we could have taken legal action, as we had been using that brand name long before they did.
Incidentally, when Facebook became Meta, some lawyers explained to me that we could have taken legal action, as we had been using that brand name long before they did. I never pursued the idea. It would have taken an enormous amount of time and energy. And besides, to a certain extent, the global recognition of the word ‘Meta’ has also boosted our visibility.
You will remain closely associated with the Immotop adventure in the public consciousness.
“This venture has taken up a large part of my professional life. Immotop was, above all, a family project. My brother and I developed it together. He was in charge of the technical side, whilst I took care of the general management.
Our aim was simple: to offer a credible alternative to a player that dominated the Luxembourg market. At the time, many thought this was impossible. Yet we managed to make a name for ourselves. I even believe we were the only Luxembourg-based team to successfully compete with a virtual monopoly over the long term.
My departure from Immotop? I didn’t want to follow certain practices that involve sharply increasing prices once a dominant position has been established.
How did you finance this growth?
“It wasn’t exactly a walk in the park. At one point, we needed cash to keep investing. We approached several local banks. As expected, most of them turned us down. But you have to look at the bigger picture: we were a small tech start-up with no traditional collateral.”
We eventually found partners at international conferences focusing on digital platforms. An Italian group took a stake in the company, followed by a major German player specialising in digital media and classified ads. We ended up with a structure where three shareholders each held around a third of the capital. This arrangement created an interesting balance: no one could impose their decisions on their own [smile].
Why did you leave after 15 years?
“Over time, our views began to diverge. I felt increasing pressure on certain strategic issues. In particular, regarding price increases, as I did not wish to replicate certain business models that involve sharply raising prices once a dominant market position has been established. I have always maintained relationships based on trust with estate agents and property developers. I felt we had a special responsibility towards them.
At a certain point, as our visions were no longer fully aligned, we organised a handover; a successor took over the management and I left the company.
As I began to take an interest in the estate agent’s profession, I came to understand the challenges they face.
Yet you didn’t immediately relaunch a platform…
“That’s right. I was bound by a four-year non-competition clause and so couldn’t immediately set up a direct competitor.
I used that time to do something else: developing technology. I studied the market. And, above all, I decided to gain a better understanding of the estate agent’s trade.
Why this immersion?
“Because you can’t build good tools if you don’t understand users’ real problems. So I launched Secretimmo. The idea was, in particular, to generate off-market sales opportunities. But above all, it allowed me to experience the day-to-day life of estate agents. I carried out viewings, valuations, meetings with sellers, negotiations... I discovered just how complex this profession is and… I understood their struggles.
As every profession has its own set of challenges, I wanted to understand estate agents before proposing solutions.
How did you experience the crisis of 2022–2023?
“Like many others in the sector: with concern. At one point, the number of transactions fell by around 45%. The market shifted extremely quickly from a seller’s market to a buyer’s market. It was a sudden change.
For years, everything seemed straightforward. Then interest rates rose. Creditworthy buyers became scarce, and the situation took many professionals by surprise.
What impact have you observed on agencies?
“Marketing budgets were the first to take the hit. Established agencies generally had sufficient reserves. Newer firms suffered more. Some virtually halted their advertising spend. When there are fewer transactions, there is inevitably less money available for marketing.
You often compare the current situation to the subprime crisis.
“Because I’ve experienced both: when I started my business, we were in the midst of a global financial crisis. But Luxembourg had weathered it relatively well. Southern European countries, on the other hand, had been hit much harder. In Spain and Portugal, some areas lost up to 50% of their value. Luxembourg had largely escaped that scenario. This time, however, the correction has had a greater impact on our local market.
Why has the off-plan property market been particularly hard hit?
“When a buyer purchases an existing property, they see exactly what they’re buying. When they sign a pre-build contract, they’re buying a promise. In times of confidence, this works, but when the media start reporting on developers going bust, an economic slowdown or rising interest rates, the mood changes. Buyers then prefer an existing property, even if it needs work.
When it comes to data, if a locality has only two or three sales over a given period, how can one derive a representative value from this?
You highlight what you see as Luxembourg’s real problem, which, in your view, is a lack of data.
“Absolutely. There’s a lot of talk about the housing shortage. There’s a lot of talk about prices. But Luxembourg’s real problem is also the lack of reliable data. The country has a problem with reliable data. We’re a micro-market with a limited number of transactions.
And when a crisis further reduces this volume, the data becomes insufficient, despite the fact that we have Statec and the Observatoire de l’habitat. These organisations do invaluable work, but there are several limitations. Firstly, some statistics are released several months late. Secondly, some local authorities generate very few transactions: when a locality has only two or three sales over a given period, how can a representative value be derived from this?
When it comes to goods, you often use the term ‘damaged’ goods.
“It’s a familiar and disastrous process: the owner asks for too high a price, convinced of their property’s value and influenced by the sentimental value they attach to it, which puts it out of the market and prevents any sale. They eventually resolve to lower the price gradually. Buyers watch this drop, become wary, and wonder what’s wrong. Ultimately, by the time the property finally reaches the right price, it has often depreciated and become very difficult to sell. Sellers, do bear this in mind!
Tell us about off-market sales. One might be inclined to think that they’re aimed at a specific clientele.
“Contrary to popular belief, off-market sales aren’t just for millionaires. Of course, they often involve luxury properties. But they also apply to divorce cases, inheritance matters, business executives, or even sellers who are on bad terms with their neighbours. In short, anyone seeking discretion. Yes, a estate agent is sometimes – often – a psychologist [smile].
We factor the middle class’s actual purchasing power into our estimation tool, as prices must always reflect economic reality.
We know you’re a bit wary of the AtHome valuation tool. How is data transforming property valuation, and what about your tool?
“With Estimator Pro, we combine several valuation methods – market comparison, rental yield, replacement cost, the hedonic method and household purchasing power – to provide professionals with more information. The aim is not to replace the valuer, but to help them make better decisions.
We also take into account the middle class’s actual purchasing power, as a price must always be consistent with economic reality. Finally, energy performance is becoming a key factor: properties with the lowest energy ratings risk suffering a ‘brown discount’, a price reduction linked to their poor energy efficiency.
But despite the data and models, the property market remains a deeply human affair. We are delighted that some purchases are still made, above all, with the heart.”
