This is the big question: can the current surge in fuel prices bring forward the date of the next indexation instalment? The answer will disappoint some—mainly motorists.

“In Luxembourg, an index tranche is triggered when the half-yearly average of the consumer price index (base 100 at 1.1.1948) registers a difference of 2.5% compared with the last expiry date,” points out the Statec.

That said, if a rise in fuel prices accelerates this process, the influence is limited. In fact, the weight of diesel and petrol in the consumer price index remains low, at 1.2% and 1.5% respectively. “That said, and given the recent trend in oil and fuel prices in Luxembourg, their continued high prices throughout March could bring forward the next index tranche to the second quarter,” predicts the statistics institute.

The central scenario of the latest Statec forecasts set the next indexation of wages for the second quarter of 2026 with a replication in the third quarter of 2027. This remains the central scenario. With one caveat: “Continued high oil and fuel prices throughout March could bring forward the timing of the next index-linked tranche into the second quarter.” In short, closer to April than June.

Status quo on inflation expectations

Will the Statec have to change its inflation expectations? The answer will be given on 6 May. “It is important to distinguish between short-term volatility and lasting structural changes in the energy markets. The impact on inflation will depend largely on how the conflict develops and how long the Strait of Hormuz remains affected. If the disruption is short-lived and normal shipping flows resume in a few weeks’ time, the current surge in prices should ease. Conversely, prolonged disruption could keep upward pressure on energy prices. Any potential impact on our forecasts would be taken into account in the next update of inflation forecasts scheduled for May 6,” says Statec.

That said, the statistical office’s latest forecasts included an alternative scenario reflecting the upside risks associated with renewed geopolitical tensions and potential supply disruptions affecting crude oil and natural gas prices. In this scenario, the annual average for Brent was set at $77 a barrel in 2026 and $87 a barrel in 2027—compared with $60 and $56 respectively in the central scenario—and inflation would reach 2.5% in 2026 and 2.4% in 2027, 0.7 percentage points higher than in the central scenario.