Meeting in The Hague for a summit starting Tuesday evening and deemed “historic,” Nato leaders have adopted a new strategic direction: a common defence investment target of 5% of GDP, up from 2%.
“This is a quantum leap that is ambitious, historic, and fundamental to securing our future,” said Nato secretary general Mark Rutte at a press conference ahead of the summit, which begins this evening with a dinner for heads of state and government on the one hand, and heads of diplomacy and defence ministers on the other. A plan has been drawn up, with precise capability targets, including a fivefold increase in air defence systems, thousands of armoured vehicles and a massive increase in munitions production. The message is clear: the Alliance is moving up a gear.
The new secretary general did not hide his concern about geopolitical developments: Russia’s continued war in Ukraine, hybrid threats on the eastern flank, tensions in the Middle East and the rise of China in the Indo-Pacific. “As the world becomes more dangerous, Allied leaders will take bold decisions to strengthen our collective defence, making Nato a stronger, a fairer and a more lethal Alliance.… We are committed to defending every inch of Allied territory, should any potential adversary make the mistake of attacking any Ally.”
With regard to Russia, Rutte warned that if Nato did not rapidly strengthen its capabilities, an attack could become a possibility within three to seven years. “Today, if Russia would attack us, our reaction will be devastating, and the Russians know this. But there is great worry in many circles of Nato. We have heard the chief of defence in Germany, a couple of weeks ago, and many other senior military leaders speaking about this, and also senior intelligence community people speaking about, that between three, five, seven years from now, Russia will be able to successfully attack us, if we do not start investing more today.”
Support for Ukraine remains a central theme of the summit. Nato is united and resolute: the aid pledged by European countries and Canada has risen from €20bn to €35bn in just two months. "Our support for Ukraine is unwavering and will persist,” said Rutte. “There is an irreversible path of Ukraine to enter Nato.” President Zelenskyy is due to take part in several bilateral and trilateral meetings with the Allies and the European Union during the summit in The Hague. A strong signal, despite the absence of a formal Nato-Ukraine Council at the highest level this time.
The question of the implementation of the 5% threshold has been fiercely debated, particularly with regard to Spain, which remains one of the lowest spending members on defence. Rutte acknowledged a difference in assessment: Madrid thinks it can achieve its objectives with 2.1%, whilst Nato believes it will need 3.5%.
“Allies have agreed an ambitious new set of capability targets,” said Rutte. “There will be annual reports on what nations are spending, there will be regular reviews on what is what is happening. In 2029 we will take stock, including on the international security situation, whether we might need to increase the amount of spending we need to do as a collective Alliance, for example.”
An industry under stress, an Alliance in unison
To achieve its objectives, Nato intends to mobilise the entire industrial ecosystem and is calling for greater cooperation between governments, defence industrialists and new technological entrants. The issue of production is crucial to avoid a “capability gap” in the years to come.
“There is an urgent need,” said Rutte. But “there is also a tremendous upside to ramping up our defence production. Not only will we be more secure, but there is huge economic potential for our societies--including more jobs for our people.
Finally, Rutte noted that the Alliance, although focused on the Euro-Atlantic area, could not ignore the strategic links between Russia, China, Iran, North Korea and Belarus. He spoke of a global threat, justifying both a military build-up in the east and close dialogue with partners in the Indo-Pacific. “Be watchful what China is doing with a rapid build-up of its military, already the same amount [of] ships sailing in their navy, compared to the United States, and it will grow into 450 ships by 2030.”
The 2025 summit therefore marks a turning point: that of an organisation that is more proactive, more economically integrated and resolutely focused on the defence of its members in the face of an increasingly unstable environment. “Whilst Nato is and will remain a defensive Alliance--there should be no doubt about our ability and resolve to protect our nations and respond with resounding force should we be attacked. This is what it means to be a more lethal Alliance.”
This article was originally published in French.
