“This stock therefore makes it possible to mitigate the impact of these contingencies and provide the ammunition needed for an initial operational engagement, calculated on the basis of standard consumption rates” reads the bill introduced by Defence Minister Yuriko Backes on 17 August. Photo: Shutterstock

“This stock therefore makes it possible to mitigate the impact of these contingencies and provide the ammunition needed for an initial operational engagement, calculated on the basis of standard consumption rates” reads the bill introduced by Defence Minister Yuriko Backes on 17 August. Photo: Shutterstock

One of the major costs left open when MPs approved the Belgian-Luxembourg combat battalion’s vehicle programme in 2024 has now been priced. Its initial Nato-required ammunition reserve could take around a decade to assemble and would cover the opening phase of an operation, not a prolonged conflict or the army’s wider ammunition needs.

Defence Minister Yuriko Backes set out on 17 August a bill providing for a €324.47m ammunition programme, at June 2026 prices, for the new joint combat unit with Belgium, filling in one of the major costs left open when its vehicle and long-term support programme was approved two years ago.

Most of the money would go towards the initial reserve, alongside specialised equipment, documentation and training, with a smaller share covering programme management and maintenance. Deliveries are expected to stretch over roughly ten years as manufacturers work through available production capacity.

“The sustainment stock allows the binational battalion to have the ammunition needed to operate during an operational engagement for a period determined according to Nato standards until additional ammunition is supplied through resupply chains,” the bill’s explanatory memorandum states.

The €324.5m estimate answers one of the major questions deliberately left open when MPs approved the battalion’s €2.616bn vehicle and long-term support programme in 2024. Backes told parliament at the time that ammunition and storage were not yet sufficiently developed to cost and would return in separate legislation. Simulation and parts of the infrastructure programme also remain separate, meaning the latest proposal still does not establish the full cost of bringing the unit into service.

Enough to deploy

Of the €324.47m total, €317.95m would cover the initial ammunition stock, specialised equipment, documentation and initial training, while €3.85m is allocated to programme and technical management. Another €2.66m would cover maintenance, including preserving and eventually disposing of ammunition, renting storage capacity in Belgium, industrial support under contract, technical assistance and continued training.

The bill does not disclose how many rounds or missiles would be bought or provide a weapon-by-weapon breakdown of the cost. Quantities are instead based on Nato requirements and standard consumption assumptions for the opening phase of an operation. Training ammunition used afterwards is excluded, along with the additional supplies required to sustain a prolonged conflict.

The roughly ten-year timetable refers to assembling the initial reserve, not buying a decade’s worth of ammunition consumption. Manufacturers are expected to deliver progressively according to their production capacity.

Recent supply shocks form part of the case for having the stock ready before it is needed. The explanatory memorandum points to successive crises from the Covid-19 pandemic to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine as evidence of the vulnerability of defence production and supply chains.

“This stock therefore makes it possible to mitigate the impact of these contingencies and provide the ammunition needed for an initial operational engagement, calculated on the basis of standard consumption rates.”

The government had been explicit in 2024 that ammunition would return in separate legislation. The vehicle legislation said ammunition requirements were still being developed in light of lessons from recent conflicts and could not yet be reliably priced. Ammunition, simulation and infrastructure would return in separate financing laws once their requirements were sufficiently mature.

Parliament approved the vehicle and support programme in November 2024 by 52 votes to seven. Its €2.616bn envelope covers considerably more than the purchase of combat vehicles, including weapons and communications systems, upgrades, spare parts, training, technical assistance and industrial maintenance over an estimated 30-year lifecycle.

More firepower

The ammunition programme reflects a wider change in the role and firepower of the army. Nato assigned Belgium and Luxembourg the objective of establishing a medium combat reconnaissance battalion in 2021, and the two countries signed a cooperation agreement in 2023. The unit is being built towards 2030.

The government described the battalion in July as the most ambitious capability project the Luxembourg Army has undertaken to date. The Luxembourg contingent is intended to grow from two light reconnaissance companies with around 240 personnel into a half-battalion of roughly 350 operational troops, adding headquarters and logistics elements alongside substantially heavier equipment.

Backes described the change when presenting the vehicle programme to MPs in May 2024. “The creation of the binational battalion and the acquisition of technically advanced medium combat vehicles will enable the Luxembourg Army to transform so that it can operate in a more demanding security environment,” she said.

The vehicle programme provides for 38 Jaguar reconnaissance and combat vehicles, 16 Griffon armoured vehicles and five Servals, together with recovery vehicles, logistics trucks, tank transporters and rail wagons. Belgium placed the order for the Jaguars and Griffons on Luxembourg’s behalf in December 2025, with parts of the new capability expected to become operational from 2028.

Jaguars carry a 40mm cannon, medium-range missiles and a remotely operated 7.62mm machine gun, while the Griffons ordered for the unit will also carry remote weapon stations. The proposed stocks will correspond to the weapons operated by the Luxembourg contingent and are intended to remain as closely aligned as possible with Belgian requirements.

Belgium and Luxembourg plan to manage ammunition together, using compatible equipment and equivalent training and operating concepts to simplify supply and allow the two halves of the unit to work together with minimal additional preparation.

Much of the reserve can be accommodated at Waldhof, where military ammunition-storage facilities are already being expanded and upgraded. Some stocks could also be held in Belgium or pre-positioned elsewhere with allies when required.

Cost with a cushion

The €324.47m authorisation is calculated at June 2026 prices, with actual payments adjusted in line with the national consumer price index. A 25% margin is already built into the estimates for costs that cannot yet be predicted precisely, including technological developments, future ammunition upgrades and maintenance requirements.

The bill also allows part of that reserve to support agreements or arrangements intended to generate economic returns from the programme.

“This reserve will, where appropriate, make it possible to finance the conclusion of agreements or the establishment of specific arrangements likely to strengthen Luxembourg’s defence industrial and technological base and generate economic returns,” the explanatory memorandum states.

The immediate scope for domestic procurement is limited. The government’s sustainability assessment states that the acquisitions covered by the bill will not be made in Luxembourg. Companies based in the country could still win related work or join wider international defence supply chains.

As military expenditure rises, procurement abroad does not generate an equivalent amount of domestic economic activity. Securing a return from such spending will therefore depend partly on whether local companies can find a place elsewhere in the programmes and supply chains being created.

The legal test

The new bill also arrives after the government ran into trouble with the State Council over the battalion’s previous financing law. In July 2024, the council formally objected because the original €2.616bn legislation did not fix acquisition and long-term support costs separately, considering the overall authorisation insufficiently precise.

The government responded by putting figures on both categories but described them as approximate. The State Council maintained its objection in October.

The final law fixed €1.30091bn for acquisition and €1.31527bn for logistical support. The ammunition bill starts with its own defined split: €321.8055m for initial acquisition and administrative costs and €2.6618m for maintenance.

The new bill will not settle the battalion’s overall price. Simulation and further infrastructure were among the elements set aside alongside ammunition in 2024 and still require separate financing decisions.