Europe’s IPO market has learnt to live with crisis. Tariff disputes, war in Iran and geopolitical tension have failed to shut a window that opened in 2025. Yet behind the healthier flow of flotations, a harder question is emerging: what happens when Europe runs out of companies ready to step through it?

Markets keep the door open

In its latest report titled “Europe’s IPO Window Stays Wide as Backlog Narrows,” Pitchbook said 165 companies floated in Europe in 2025, across privately backed and non-backed businesses. Another 87 listings followed in the first half of 2026, with the second-quarter tally rising 28.9% from the previous three months (see Chart 1).

The resilience reflects restrained volatility and supportive equity valuations. Pitchbook defines an open IPO window as VSTOXX volatility of 15% to 25% and a STOXX Europe 600 price-to-earnings ratio above 15 times. Those conditions have largely endured, suggesting investors have priced in a noisier political backdrop (see Chart 2).

More than 80% of flotations on exchanges this year were non-backed businesses (no prior financial backing or major ownership stakes from PE or VC), while the share of private equity- and venture capital-backed deals has declined since 2024. Private European companies are listing more often, but not always at home.

The backlog thins sharply

The stronger flow has come at a cost: the queue is shrinking. Just 223 European companies now have a high probability of floating, according to Pitchbook’s VC Exit Predictor, down 40.2% from 373 at the start of 2025. Only 10 carry a probability above 90%, compared with 32 a year earlier.

Their combined valuation is about €232bn, but Revolut alone accounts for €200bn. Strip it out and the pool looks far less capable of delivering blockbuster exits.

The UK pipeline fell from 127 candidates to 87, while Germany dropped from 54 to 24 (see Chart 3).

The pipeline accounts for three firms domiciled in Luxembourg (see Chart 4):

1.     JOKR: Operator of an online supermarket platform intended to deliver groceries and everyday essentials rapidly to customers. The company offers a platform with a network of micro fulfilment centres, personalised shopfronts, route optimisation, and automated operations, enabling urban consumers to access a wide range of daily essentials with speed and reliable availability.

2.     Satispay: Operator of a mobile payment application designed to provide an alternative to credit and debit cards for convenient and safe transactions. The company's application uses only secure and non-sensitive data because it works without credit cards for money transfers, mobile recharge, bill payments, and online or offline purchases, allowing users to transfer money with simplicity while providing merchants with a transparent, cost-effective pricing model.

3.     Gcore: Operator of cloud, edge, and AI tools intended for content delivery, application security, and AI model training. The company's platform offers a variety of features, including a globally distributed network of data centres, bare metal servers, and a user-friendly control panel, enabling businesses to improve website performance, protect against cyberattacks, and develop machine learning models.

Biotech and pharma suffered the steepest sector decline, from 125 companies to 54, while software fell from 72 to 45.

AI moves to centre stage

Europe has 72 AI-related IPO candidates, almost one-third of the pipeline, and seven have at least a 90% probability of listing (see Chart 5). They span defence drones, big data, cybersecurity, agricultural technology and fintech. Britain hosts 37.5%, followed by France with 18.1% and Germany with 8.3%.

That breadth may help replenish the pipeline, but many businesses remain young. Investors may tolerate losses while chasing growth, though cash generation, unit economics and a credible route to profit will become harder to ignore as they mature, explained Navina Rajan, senior EMEA private capital analyst at Pitchbook and author of the report.

Profit takes a smaller premium

The share of profitable European IPOs reached a record 79.5% in 2025, then eased to 76.4% in the first half of 2026. That remains above the roughly 60% average of the past decade but may show that investors are again willing to finance companies earlier in their development.

Europe’s exchanges have also clawed their way back. In 2025, only 83% of European companies chose to list in the region, an all-time low amid departures such as Arm and Klarna. In the first half of 2026, the proportion rebounded to 90%, its highest since 2022 (see Chart 6). “The nature of firms’ listings plays a role here as well as geopolitics,” the report said.

Returns cast the longest shadow

Listing volume is only half the story. Europe’s VC-backed IPO index lost 14% over one year and 46.2% over two years. Over five years, it was down 75.4%, compared with a 36% gain for the STOXX 600 (see Chart 7).

That gap matters because weak aftermarket returns suppress demand for issues, regardless of how attractive valuations look on listing day, argued the analyst in the report. It may also make founders postpone IPOs or pursue a private sale, further depleting the public-market pipeline.

Several large 2026 deals underline the risk. The Czechoslovak Group floated at an exit value of about €24.3bn but was down 49% by 30 June. Norwegian furniture retailer Bohus, valued at roughly €3.1bn at listing, had fallen 91%.

An open window is no guarantee of a durable market. Europe has proved it can bring companies to the exchange despite repeated shocks. Its next test is tougher: produce enough globally competitive candidates, and give investors returns that persuade them to fund the ones waiting behind.