“Ukraine needs a united answer to the Russian aggressor,” Nicolas Zharov, president of the non-profit organisation Lukraine, told me during an interview in early February to mark two years since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Founded by Ukrainians in Luxembourg in 2014, the association aims to raise awareness about Ukraine and provide humanitarian aid. “The reluctance that our partners are showing sometimes influences directly the capacity of our resistance on the frontlines.”
Despite initial resistance from Hungary’s prime minister Viktor Orban, the European council on 1 February 2024 to mobilise €50bn under the Ukraine facility, and “we are happy that the European Union voted for the new budget to support Ukraine,” said Zharov.
But “political instability” in the United States is having an impact on its support for Ukraine.
Republicans in the US congress have been blocking Ukraine aid for weeks now, and although the Senate on 13 February voted to pass a foreign aid bill including $61bn for Ukraine, it’s not clear whether the House of Representatives--in which Republicans hold a majority--will approve the bill, as it doesn’t include provisions related to migration on the US southern border, as reported by Reuters.
“Given that the United States is one of our biggest military supporters, it has an impact on what’s going on in Ukraine. And this impact is negative,” said Zharov. “We have 10 times less ammunition and other needed equipment, compared to the Russian army.”
“The threat is real”
Russian president Vladimir Putin in November 2023 approved an increase in the country’s military spending to 30% of its 35trn rouble (€360bn) national budget. Spending on armed forces would therefore come to approximately €110bn for 2024, an almost 70% increase compared to 2023.
The Kiel Institute for the World Economy reported updated figures on military, financial and humanitarian aid promised by governments to Ukraine from 24 January 2022 to 15 January 2024. In terms of military aid, the US has committed €42.2bn, Germany €17.7bn, the United Kingdom €9.1bn, EU institutions €5.6bn and Poland €3bn. As a comparison of scale, the US in December 2023 passed its defence budget for 2024--the figure came to $886bn (around €830bn).
“We are way behind. And when I say ‘we,’ it’s the European countries in terms of catching up with a potential threat that might arrive, if Ukraine loses,” said Zharov. “That’s why we try to draw attention to various scenarios to what will happen if we don’t win this war. And those scenarios involve direct confrontation of Nato and the Russian Federation.”
Estonia’s foreign intelligence service, in its published in February 2024, wrote: “We can expect that within the next decade, Nato will face a Soviet-style mass army that, while technologically inferior to the allies, poses a significant threat due to its size, firepower and reserves. Although Russia’s massive human resources--reduced to cannon fodder--have not been able to conduct large-scale offensive operations in Ukraine, the Kremlin’s war machine still has enough fuel.” Moreover, it added that “the Kremlin is probably anticipating a possible conflict with Nato within the next decade.”
“The threat is real,” said Lukraine’s Zharov. “Politicians have to prepare the population that this scenario may see the day in some time. We as Europeans have to support Ukraine to avoid this scenario, and this support should be even greater than it was.”
What Ukraine needs
“The future of Europe depends on Ukraine, and we have to put all the resources to make this future bright,” said Zharov. There are five pillars that need to be addressed.
“The first pillar is definitely the military machine that Russia possesses,” said Zharov. Russia is able to mobilise more soldiers than Ukraine, which does not have the same “human resources.” Ukraine therefore needs continued military support and equipment, while sanctions also need to be tightened to ensure that dual-use technological goods that can be used for military purposes--like semiconductors, drones, industrial machinery or electronic components for weapon systems--cannot be sold to Russia by third countries.
The EU has so far passed , including asset freezes, import/export bans and an oil price cap, with the most recent measures agreed upon on 21 February 2024. But more can be done to avoid circumvention. “We have to find a solution that technological equipment does not land in Russia eventually,” said Zharov.
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The second pillar involves the economy. Despite an oil price cap, Russia has benefited from selling oil and gas throughout the last year, thanks to its “shadow fleet,” made up of ships with obscure ownership that sail without standard insurance policies. “We call on more sanctions and on lowering the price cap on natural resources, such as oil and gas.”
“Although we do understand that the European Union is still largely dependent on gas, we call on accelerating the transition to renewable energies.” It won’t happen tomorrow, Zharov added, but we need to think in a longer perspective.
Frozen Russian assets
In addition, the billions in frozen Russian assets should be used to help Ukraine, argued Zharov. “I think that’s quite the solution to reduce the financial charge on European citizens.”
Around €260bn in Central Bank of Russia (CBR) assets have been “immobilised” in the jurisdictions of G7 partners, the EU and Australia, with more than two-thirds sitting in the EU, noted a published on 12 February. In that same communiqué, the council announced that it had adopted a decision and a regulation clarifying the obligations of central securities depositories holding assets and reserves of the Russian central bank.
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Depositories “holding more than €1m of CBR’s assets must account extraordinary cash balances accumulating due to EU restrictive measures separately and must also keep corresponding revenues separate,” said the press release, which added that depositories “shall be prohibited from disposing of the ensuing net profits.”
The decision, the communiqué added, “paves the way for the council to decide on a possible establishment of a financial contribution to the EU budget raised on these net profits to support Ukraine and its recovery and reconstruction.”
“Axis of evil”
Zharov’s third pillar concerns the “allies of Russia”--Iran, China and North Korea--which make up what he called “the new axis of evil.” North Korea is delivering more artillery shells to Russia than the entire EU is delivering to Ukraine, said Zharov.
South Korea’s intelligence service said in November 2023 that it believed North Korea to have sent more than 1m artillery shells to Russia; the EU’s high representative for foreign affairs Josep Borrell said in January that that the EU would only be able to deliver half of its goal of 1m shells for Ukraine by March 2024.
China is serving as an economic partner by allowing embargoed products to enter Russia from the west, said Zharov, while Iran is sending drones and missiles to Russia. Diplomatic efforts and sanctions should be stepped up to stop countries from supporting and sending military equipment to Russia, he argued.
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And looking at international organisations like the UN, “there needs to be a change in the way that the United Nations functions, not only to be able to withdraw or bypass the Russian veto in the [UN] Security Council, but also putting more pressure on countries who are supporting the aggression.” Russia, despite its full-scale war against Ukraine, has remained a permanent member of the UN Security Council, along with China, France, the United Kingdom and US.
“Elections of Putin”
Despite some anti-war protests, open letters and petitions, as well as the departure and imprisonment of Russians who oppose the war, Russian society largely supports Putin. Zharov called Russia’s upcoming vote in March “the elections of Putin, not the presidential elections.”
“A sense of war weariness is spreading in Russian cities and regions,” wrote Estonia’s foreign intelligence service in its 2024 report. “Nevertheless, the Kremlin’s repressive apparatus controls societal morale so tightly that even the pleas of tens of thousands of mothers of soldiers left on the battlefield have not yet created a resonance that would seriously threaten the regime’s stability.”
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The country has experienced “more than 80, 90 years of propaganda--starting from the beginning of the Soviet Union and after the second world war--mostly propaganda against the west,” said Zharov. People are “used to it, and the communist system and socialist system that was installed in the Soviet Union brought people to the idea that they cannot replace, they cannot change the regime.”
“Given that economically the country is still doing pretty good, the Russian population prefers to consume TV after all. That’s why we have to put more pressure, more sanctions, not on the, let’s say, ordinary population, but on the elites. We have to make them understand that those people who are the richest in Russia will pay most of the price.”
“We call on unity”
Zharov’s fifth and final pillar refers to continued western support for Ukraine. “We have seen some geopolitical shifts in supporting Ukraine, especially in the United States,” he said. “Unity should prevail. We should understand that the threat is common. Europe should understand that, eventually, it might take time for the United States to come in more closely in the war if Trump gets elected.”
“We call on unity--the world’s unity around Ukraine, around democracy and against aggression.”
Today’s choices make tomorrow’s heritage
Things like military supplies, economic measures or sanctions can seem like faraway decisions made by governments and politicians. How can ordinary people living in Luxembourg support Ukraine?
It’s the choices that people make today that “will make their heritage in the future,” Zharov replied. “Ukraine represents democracy and freedom and peace in the future. And, of course, peace on the European continent.”
“That’s why we have to talk to the politicians, we have to support financially,” said Zharov. “We have to announce to our governments, to our politicians that that’s what we want, and that’s what we think.”
We have to be involved. Right now
Luxembourg in the second world war, he noted, lived under German occupation. “This history echoes very well with the Ukrainian situation right now.” Luxembourg’s people were told they were they were part of Germany, he said. “And that’s what Russia tries to present to the whole world: that Ukraine is a failed state and it’s a part of the Russian empire.”
“Our choices of today are our heritage,” Zharov highlighted. Say that the third world war breaks out. “We will not be able to say to our children that there was Ukraine fatigue, that that was my excuse not to be active and to change things and to talk to my deputies or politicians that represent me to support Ukraine.”
“This cannot be used an excuse. That’s why we have to be involved. Right now.”
Lukraine in Luxembourg: focus on empowerment
In Ukraine, the association’s major projects involve delivering ambulances and conducting medical checkups for people along the frontline.
But over the last year, the association’s activities in Luxembourg have shifted from emergency humanitarian support and psychological aid to the “empowerment of people,” said Zharov. Nevertheless, “we’re still giving psychological assistance to those in need.”
“We do feel that there was definitely a swing between the people who were needing the assistance. In the early stages, mostly there were adults; now we are more focused on children and teenagers who are having hard times integrating into the new school system, or they cannot see the future, within one or two years.”
We are pursuing our mission to rebuild people and empower them
The Ukrainian community in Luxembourg has also set up a school, which now has 97 children aged 4 to 11, but plans to expand to 200 students by taking in older students (aged 12 to 17) as well. Specific education related to personal finance and IT will be provided, “given that we find that those sectors are particularly interesting in Luxembourg and in Ukraine.”
“We are pursuing our mission to rebuild people and empower them.” Other projects in Luxembourg include informational help and age-specific activities (for youths and seniors), such as theatre evenings or chess clubs-- “everything that can actually help them feel that they’re not lonely here. That’s our empowering strategy.”
“And, of course, we continue our cultural diplomacy and public awareness about the situation in Ukraine.”
To mark two years since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, several events are being organised in Luxembourg, including a solidarity march on Saturday 24 February 2024. Find more information .