The Post Luxembourg group’s 2025 annual report, presented this Tuesday morning at the company’s headquarters during a press conference, highlights a structural strain that now goes beyond a mere cyclical slowdown: behind record turnover of €984.6m and continued strong performance in telecoms (€646m compared with €635m last year) and logistics (€186m, up €10m, driven by a record 10 million parcels delivered), it is the very mechanism of value creation within the public group that is beginning to come under significant strain. All this despite the fact that the Net Promoter Score has never been higher since 2022, a sign of genuine satisfaction.

This trend becomes clear when we examine the evolution of the value created by the company over the last four financial years. After deducting purchases of goods and services from turnover, Post’s value creation amounts to approximately €501.3m in 2022, €543m in 2023, €552m in 2024, and €549m in 2025. In other words, following strong post-Covid growth, this value creation has now plateaued at around €550m.

At the same time, the total wage bill continues to rise steadily. Wages and social security contributions rise from €391.4m in 2022 to €402m in 2023, then to €419m in 2024 and finally to €443m in 2025. As a result, the proportion of wealth created absorbed by staff costs now stands at 80.5%, compared with just 74% two years earlier.

This development almost tells the whole story of Post’s recent financial history.

Changes in ECB interest rates are weighing on results

In 2022, the group was already feeling the impact of sharp rises in inflation and successive index-linked pay rises in Luxembourg. Wages then account for 78.1% of value created. But 2023 marks a clear improvement. Turnover soars to €969 million, driven by telecoms, ICT and the general recovery in economic activity. Value creation grows faster than wage costs, allowing the ratio to fall back to 74%.

However, the upturn lasts only one financial year.

In 2024, the trend began to reverse. The delayed effects of automatic pay rises, new collective agreements and widespread pressure on wages gradually began to take their toll on the group. Even with record turnover of €978 million, the wage bill rose to 75.9% of the wealth generated.

Then comes 2025.

Revenue is certainly still rising slightly, but at a much slower pace than before. Above all, expenditure on goods and services is rising sharply, driven by technology costs, cybersecurity spending, licensing fees, energy costs and the investments required for the group’s digital transformation. Value creation is therefore virtually stagnant, falling from €552m to €549m, whilst staff costs continue to rise automatically.

Ebitda fell to €159m

However, the deterioration in the group’s financial performance is primarily due to another factor: the decline in Post Finance’s profitability. Following an excellent year in 2024, driven by the European Central Bank’s (ECB) high key interest rates, the monetary environment changed abruptly in 2025. The fall in interest rates significantly reduced the net interest margin of the financial services division. The division’s turnover thus fell to €61m, compared with €76m a year earlier.

This has had a disproportionately large impact on the overall performance of the group’s financial results. The telecoms and ICT businesses remain strong, with turnover of €646m, whilst the logistics division continues to transform, with a 19% increase in parcel volumes handled.

The results are reflected in the consolidated accounts: EBITDA fell to €159m and net profit dropped to €31.3m, compared with around €50m a year earlier.

This pressure comes at a time when Post is undertaking an exceptionally substantial investment programme. The group continues to finance the roll-out of fibre-optic networks (which has so far cost €600 million), 5G, its data centres, its future logistics centre in Bettembourg, and the complete modernisation of Post Finance’s IT infrastructure using its own funds.

An increasingly complex equation

The situation is therefore becoming more complex. On the one hand, the group must continue to invest heavily to maintain its position in critical infrastructure, cloud computing, cybersecurity and logistics. On the other hand, its cost structure remains extremely rigid, with 4,576 employees and universal service obligations that severely limit the scope for rapid rationalisation.

“The future development of our company will depend above all on our employees,” said Françoise Schlink, Chair of the Board of Directors. “They embody the face of Post on a daily basis and uphold our core values: quality, proximity and reliability. Thanks to their commitment, I am convinced that we will be able to further expand our business, particularly in the areas of digital sovereignty and cloud services.”

When asked about the impact artificial intelligence might have on staff numbers or on the development of their skills, the CEO of Post, Claude Strasser, said that the head of human resources, Isabelle Faber, is expected to present a training and preparedness plan for this wave. “We are preparing for this situation. We are not yet in that position. We are not facing a mass replacement of staff by AI, but we are aware that these changes are coming. We still have a lot of staff who travel to our customers’ premises for installations or to deliver parcels. They are not the primary target. In administrative roles, we have proportionally fewer staff than in other companies. I’m working on the assumption that the impact will be less significant for us.”

The problem is therefore not solely one of wages, nor is it purely cyclical. It stems from a combination of several factors: stagnation in value creation, a steady rise in labour costs, a surge in investment requirements, and the disappearance of the positive impact of interest rates that had underpinned financial profitability in 2024. For a public sector group historically renowned for its financial strength, this development marks a subtle but significant turning point.