In ten years, the median age of the EU population has risen by 2.2 years to 44.7, compared with 42.5 in 2014. Almost no country has escaped this trend, with the exception of two where the median age has fallen, but only by a very small amount: -0.7 years in Malta and -0.1 years in Germany. For all the others, the median age is increasing, and in some countries this ageing is much higher than the European average. This is the case, for example, in Greece (median age 46.9), Italy (48.7), Portugal (47.1) and Slovakia (42.6), where it has increased by four years. Italy is also the country with the highest median age in Europe.

In Luxembourg, the median age of the population rose by 0.5 years, or just six months, to 39.7 years. Compared with its close neighbours, Luxembourg has a much younger population than France (42.5 years), Belgium (42 years) and Germany (45.5 years).

There are several reasons for this widespread ageing phenomenon. Firstly, by the falling birth rate on the continent. On closer examination, the countries with the lowest birth rates are also those that have seen the median age of their populations rise: Italy (6.7 births per 1,000 inhabitants), Spain (6.9/1,000) and Greece (7.3/1,000). These are also the countries with the lowest fertility rates: 1.25 children per woman in Italy, 1.16 in Spain and 1.32 in Greece. In the case of Luxembourg, the fertility rate is lower than the European average: 1.31 children per woman compared with 1.45 at European level.

Higher life expectancy in Luxembourg

Longer life expectancy also contributes to population ageing. Here again, the countries with the highest median age all enjoy life expectancy in excess of 80 years, and in some cases above the European average of 81.5 years. In Italy, for example, it is as high as 83.8 years, 84 in Spain and 81.6 in Greece.

In Luxembourg, too, life expectancy exceeds the European average: 83.4 years, and it is rising (+1.1 years in ten years). But the country has one of the lowest proportions of elderly people (over 65) in the total population, at around 15%.

In the EU as a whole, 21.6% of the population is aged over 65. This is a major challenge for the future. “As a result of demographic change, the proportion of people of working age in the EU is shrinking while the relative number of those retired is expanding. The share of older people in the total population is expected to increase significantly in the coming decades. This may, in turn, lead to an increased burden on those of working age to provide for the social expenditure required by the ageing population for a range of related services,”  Eurostat, referring to “a long-term trend that began several decades ago in Europe.”

According to projections by the EU’s statistics bureau, the population will continue to age between now and 2100, with economic and social consequences such as pressure on pension systems, with fewer working people to pay pensions, rising healthcare costs and labour shortages in certain sectors.

Faced with these risks, in some countries the fact that the population is ageing is also being used as an argument in favour of postponing the retirement age. Other solutions, such as encouraging the birth rate or promoting the immigration of skilled workers, could also slow down the ageing process.

This article was originally published in .