In preparation for a new tripartite meeting to be held in the autumn, bilateral meetings between employee representatives and the government will be held on Thursday. For the moment the focus is on presenting each side’s point of view. The starting positions of each party already seem to be very far apart.
Since the national statistics bureau Statec that the next indexation would be introduced in the fourth quarter of 2022, a number of questions have rised: should indexation be postponed again, after the postponement of the July indexation? If so, should it be compensated? And to what extent? This is what the new tripartite will have to decide on.
Tstipulated that there could not be more than one indexation triggered over 12 months. But the law transposing the agreement, adopted in June, only provided for the postponement of the July indexation, leaving ambiguity around the following ones.
However, the finance ministry stated in June that the principle of the agreement of a single indexation over 12 months was maintained. On the eve of a new tripartite summit--between unions, business leaders and the government--the upcoming negotiations do not seem to be able to avoid a debate on the legitimacy of a new postponement.
The OGBL without concession
In fact, the OGBL will oppose it again, as it did in March. “The postponement of indexation is the wrong way to go, it remains our central theme”, says OGBL president .
With the war in Ukraine far from over and inflation continuing to rise, more index brackets will be crossed, stated Back. And the problem remains the same as in the past: how to pay the full amount of indexation deferred to 1 April 2024, as the current agreement provides by default? “This is not realistic,” insists Back. “If we continue to defer, the risk is that tranches will be removed and the OGBL cannot sign up for that.”
The CGFP told Delano's sister publication Paperjam that it did not want to comment before the bilateral meetings. But at the beginning of August, when Statec had announced in its forecasts the crossing of an index bracket in the 4th quarter of 2022, the president of the CGFP union, , had told Paperjam that he was not in favour of a new postponement: “We have to put things back on the table and start new negotiations", he had said. “It is quite clear to us that wage indexation must work again as before. A further postponement of the index does not seem to be an option.”
LCGB cautious
The LCGB union’s priority is to maintain purchasing power and safeguard jobs, but it does not want to take a position on the question of postponing the next indexation for the time being. The agreement signed in March is “a good agreement” and its content remains in force, says LCGB president . He also admits that it is still possible to “find a better agreement to replace the old one”. Dury also warns: “For the LCGB, the principle of indexation is not on hand. The employers always have new ideas to try to abolish this system, but it will not happen with us.”
In any case, a detailed analysis of the situation will be necessary to develop solutions, as the situation has deteriorated since March, according to the LCGB president. Back is equally concerned: “We hope that the tripartite will be better prepared, with a better analysis of the economic sectors in difficulty in order to target aid more precisely” and avoid a policy that supports all companies, even those that are not in financial difficulty.
Postponement not in question, says UEL
On the other side of the political spectrum, the UEL employers federation does not see the postponement of indexation as being in question. “Indexation is not the right solution,” says UEL president . “We should not put the burden of solving the problems of households on companies.”
Moreover, the current agreement is “very clear” on this point, according to him: “There was an indexation in April 2022, then the postponement of the one in July to April 2023. The next one can only take place twelve months later at the earliest.” The end-of-year indexation will therefore have to be postponed until April 2024.
Bringing together the five protagonists
According to the UEL president, the negotiations should focus more on the compensation mechanisms. While there is a risk of recession for 2023, Michel Reckinger believes that “compensation is very expensive. If we want to keep our triple A rating, we must be careful not to overburden the finance ministry.”
The discussion will therefore have to revolve around this question, according to the president of the UEL: “Should we compensate and pay, or find another way?”
The government will therefore have a lot of work to do in order to draw up a roadmap that manages to bring together all the actors involved. The tripartite agreement of last March was marred by the absence of the OGBL. “We are four out of five, I would have preferred five out of five,” said prime minister (DP).
This story was first published in French on . It has been translated and edited for Delano.