In the first quarter of 2024, Luxembourg had 522,650 jobs, including 231,290 cross-border commuters. “Despite a post-covid rebound, the chain of crises since 2021 (energy crisis, inflation) has slowed employment growth in Luxembourg (+48,380 jobs in five years compared with +69,650 from 2014 to 2019),” notes the Agence d’urbanisme et de développement durable de Lorraine nord (Agape), in its latest analysis of cross-border commuters published on Monday 23 September.

“Since 2022, Agape has been updating its projections for cross-border commuters every year, based on new data from the IGSS [General Inspectorate of Social Security] and medium- and long-term macroeconomic projections from [Luxembourg’s national statistics bureau] Statec. In 2024, the ratio between the forecast and actual figures shows that almost everywhere the projected figure is higher than the actual figure for 2024, with the exception of the Communauté de communes de Cattenom et environs (CCCE): this means that the flow of cross-border commuters is increasing less quickly than our projections,” notes the agency.

Half of French cross-border commuters in northern Moselle

After the slowdown caused by the covid-19 pandemic in 2020, growth in the number of cross-border workers has resumed (+13% between 2020 and 2024), but at a slower rate (+22% between 2014 and 2019). Although French cross-border commuters account for 44% of total employment in Luxembourg, they alone account for 70% of new cross-border commuters. Conversely, the share of Belgian and German workers (15% and 14% respectively) is decreasing compared to the 2014-2019 period (18%).

Another factor highlighted by the Lorraine agency is that in 2024, 62,280 cross-border commuters will be living in the Nord mosellan region (+14%), i.e., half of all French cross-border commuters. “However, their numbers are growing at a slower rate than in the Nord meurthe-et-mosellan (+20%) and the Nord meusien (+17%): cross-border workers continue to favour the Nord mosellan region, but are tending to spread out towards the Metz metropolitan area as well as in the more rural municipalities, while remaining close to the main routes, in particular the A31. In the immediate vicinity of the border, cross-border commuter rates are very high: from Villerupt to Cattenom, most municipalities now have a cross-border commuter rate of over 70%,” adds Agape.

To be more precise, in 2024, the CCPHVA (Communauté de communes Pays-Haut Val d’Alzette) is the Lorraine region most dependent on the Luxembourg economy, with almost 80% of its population working across the border, ahead of the CCCE (71%). In the Portes de France Thionville conurbation, too, more than one in two people now work in Luxembourg.

This article was originally published in .