Productivity is stagnating and the cost of labour is rising: €53.90 an hour in Luxembourg, compared with €47.10 in Belgium, €42.20 in France and €41.30 in Germany. And despite this difference, bosses are finding it increasingly difficult to recruit in neighbouring countries, the Luxembourg Chamber of Commerce stated in its opinion on the draft 2025 budget. "The number of Belgian and German cross-border commuters is virtually no longer increasing - the number of German cross-border commuters even fell in the first two quarters of 2024, as had been the case for one quarter in 2023 for Belgian cross-border commuters."
"Companies are looking at the workforce available to them and adapting their sales forecasts to this reality", explained the director of the Chamber of Commerce, , during a presentation on 26 November 2024.
Among the problems, Luxembourg is one of the countries that work the fewest hours per year in Europe: 1,459 hours per year per employee according to the OECD, which is "due" to the new forms of leave, whether parental or compensatory. "Obviously, this leave contributes to work-life balance, and that's a good thing," Thelen said. "Provided that employees can carry out their tasks under the same conditions."
Since the covid pandemic, absenteeism has soared. In 2022, according to figures from the Inspectorate General of Social Security, quoted a study by the business federation Fedil published at the start of the year, for the first time the cost of absenteeism has exceeded €1bn, with a rate that has reached 5.2% this year, compared with an annual average of 3.7% to 3.9% between 2013 and 2019. "This figure includes the continuation of sick pay paid by employers (for the first 13 weeks) as well as the financial compensation paid by the National Health Fund (CNS)", noted Fedil. "It is important to note that this figure only reflects the direct cost of absenteeism. Indirect costs, such as loss of productivity, the cost of replacing absent staff or any penalties for late delivery, are not included in this estimate. So the real cost of absenteeism is probably higher than this amount."
As a result of the war in Ukraine, the impact on the price of petroleum products has led to the emergence of a new 'incentive' not to go to work: the cost of fuel, for those who don't want to deal with the lack of public transport.
With the proportion of one-day absences by far the highest, the question is how can this be remedied? Once again, the director of the Chamber of Commerce answers, "By monitoring". Except that cross-border commuters represent more than 57% of the workforce, and that organising checks in neighbouring countries, via the inspection bodies in each country, might be an impossible pipe dream. "With a one day waiting period", says Carlo Thelen. In other words, a day's absence means a day without pay.
The idea is in the air at the moment, and the Fedil has also mentioned it as a pragmatic way forward, as it has imagined a "work bonus", a sort of monetary reserve that would reach zero for anyone abusing the short absences that disorganise companies.
Quite apart from the paradox of paying people to work, there is something unreal about this. It would simply increase the cost of labour for companies, and therefore do nothing to help them regain competitiveness at a time when the economy needs it most: to anticipate future difficulties in terms of pensions and the social security deficit - when there will no longer be enough working people to pay for those who are suffering or those who are inactive.
Read the original French-language version of this report /