As of 3 May 2025, petrol and diesel prices at the pump in Luxembourg stood at €1.434 and €1.345 per litre, respectively. That’s a notable drop from €1.496/l and €1.478/l at the start of the year. Even better--many indicators suggest prices could fall further and stay lower, possibly into 2026.

Assuming no major shocks and current conditions persist, Paperjam expects petrol prices to hover near €1.3/l and diesel around €1.2/l for the foreseeable future.

But why?

The global petroleum market is delicately balanced. Supply and demand are tightly managed to avoid extreme volatility. But it doesn’t take much--a storm, a refinery issue or a geopolitical flare-up--to throw things off course.

In 2023, global crude oil and liquid fuel production averaged 102.2m bpd (barrels per day). That rose marginally to 102.8m bpd in 2024, according to the United Sates’ Energy Information Administration (EIA)--a slim increase of 600,000 bpd.

But even modest output changes can make waves. A mere 822,000 bpd bump in Opec+ supply--representing only about 0.8% increase in the global output--has already pulled brent crude down from $82 a barrel in 2023 to around $61, a price not seen in nearly four years.

Now consider this: Opec+ to add another 1.3m bpd this year, bringing the total increase to 2.2m bpd by end-2025. The EIA forecasts this could drive brent prices to an average of $66/b in 2025 and as low as $59/b in 2026.

Crude to the pump

To understand how global oil trends could impact prices at Luxembourg’s pumps, we analysed daily petrol and diesel rates from 2010 onwards and compared them with brent crude prices.

While the relationship between the crude and pump prices isn’t perfectly linear, the analysis reveals distinct “clusters” that align with key global events--pandemics, wars and policy shifts--all of which ripple through the fuel supply chain.

So, focusing on the most recent and relevant period--January 2024 to April 2025 (the dark blue cluster of dots)--we used the EIA’s brent crude price forecasts of $66/b and $59/b to extrapolate what could lie ahead for Luxembourg’s drivers.

Using the “blue” cluster, we try to calculate the most likely prices at Luxembourg pump stations. Barring no changes in the circumstances, our projections suggest:

—Petrol (Super 95) could average €1.3445/l in 2025 and €1.2858/l in 2026.

—Diesel could ease to €1.2731/l in 2025 and drop further to €1.199/l in 2026.

Much can change, and energy markets rarely follow a straight line. But if global production continues to rise and demand remains steady, Luxembourg’s motorists may be looking at a long stretch of relief at the pump.

So, fill up and drive on this summer--cheaper days may be here to stay.