The flow of macroeconomic data is traditionally quieter at the end of the year. The publication of certain data has been brought forward, and the lower level of activity on the financial markets inevitably confers less importance on those that are nevertheless published.

First, of course, there is the expectation that Donald Trump will become president of the United States. His initial statements have lived up to the expectations of some and the fears of others. Now, words will be matched by deeds: what will be the priorities, what will be the first targets of the trade attacks, what will be the geopolitical consequences of the new president's strategies? Everyone has their own ideas, but basically no one really knows how things will turn out, and everyone is waiting for the first decisions.

In particular, the situation in Ukraine is about to change. On the one hand, the fighting is intensifying as we await a decisive act or word from Trump. Each side knows that it needs to gain ground and consolidate its positions before the negotiations (or rather the grand bargaining) can begin. On the other hand, waiting for the outcome of the contract for Russian gas transit rights through Ukraine adds another economic dimension to the issue, which is crucial for European countries.

70% of the world's GDP at the ballot box in 2025

But that's not all. In France, everyone is expecting greater political stability, but even the most astute political analysts are at a loss. The start of the new parliamentary term in January could provide some clarity on this issue.

And let's not forget that Germany is also in a precarious political situation: everyone is awaiting the outcome of the February elections, against a backdrop of economic stagnation and tensions over immigration.

The list should be continued with the wait for a government in Belgium, the wait for new initiatives from the European Commission, and so on.

In short, it should be remembered that in 2024, half the world's population (representing over 70% of global GDP) went to the polls, creating a form of uncertainty linked to new powers or, in some cases, regime changes. But in fact, the consequences of these elections will be felt mainly from 2025 onwards! As we approach the end of 2024, the prevailing mood is one of anticipation, given the extreme level of political uncertainty. One thing is certain: many of these uncertainties will be removed in 2025. That could prove interesting...

Philippe Ledent is senior economist at ING Belux. Read the original French-language version of this guest column / l.